Are there more accidents in winter months, and if so, why?Have there ever been any accidents within holding stacks?Why are so many ATR involved in accidents in the past years`?What are the statistical probabilities of commercial aircraft accidents?How much responsibility does ATC have to alert a flight about being in a dangerous situation?Are aircraft accidents more frequent in specific countries?How can you identify the upwind side of a thunderstorm, and why should you fly there?Have there ever been accidents due to a vacuum failure that hasn't been noticed?Are there regulatory bodies for investigating UAV accidents?Why is the flight duration of the same flight different in different months?Are winds that are not from the prevailing wind direction more often gusty, and why?
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Are there more accidents in winter months, and if so, why?
Have there ever been any accidents within holding stacks?Why are so many ATR involved in accidents in the past years`?What are the statistical probabilities of commercial aircraft accidents?How much responsibility does ATC have to alert a flight about being in a dangerous situation?Are aircraft accidents more frequent in specific countries?How can you identify the upwind side of a thunderstorm, and why should you fly there?Have there ever been accidents due to a vacuum failure that hasn't been noticed?Are there regulatory bodies for investigating UAV accidents?Why is the flight duration of the same flight different in different months?Are winds that are not from the prevailing wind direction more often gusty, and why?
$begingroup$
I was watching The Flight Channel videos and have noticed that the accidents seem to happen more often in winter months (for the Northern Hemisphere). Are there some statistics to back this claim?
It seems logical: Winter months means icing on wings, slippery runways, etc. Are there any not so obvious reasons for the increased accident rate during winter?
weather accidents accident-statistics
edited 2 days ago
ymb1
69.5k7220369
asked 2 days ago
user38423user38423
441
New contributor
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I was watching The Flight Channel videos and have noticed that the accidents seem to happen more often in winter months (for the Northern Hemisphere). Are there some statistics to back this claim?
It seems logical: Winter months means icing on wings, slippery runways, etc. Are there any not so obvious reasons for the increased accident rate during winter?
weather accidents accident-statistics
edited 2 days ago
ymb1
69.5k7220369
asked 2 days ago
user38423user38423
441
New contributor
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
You can have icing in the middle of the summer, too, even without going to extremes. At about 2 deg C colder per 1000 ft altitude, if the air temperature at ground level is +20 C (not unreasonable in the summer months at latitudes where you get below freezing temperatures in the winter), at 10k ft the outside air temperature is around freezing. Add a bit of moisture to that and you get icing pretty quick.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@aCVn Indeed. And for aircraft that fly at higher altitudes, sub-freezing temperatures happen on virtually every flight. It's interesting watching the OAT on the in-flight entertainment displays on an airliner in the summer. It may be 100+ degrees F on the ramp and still be well below 0 F at cruising altitude.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
$begingroup$
You can review dates of when accidents happened here ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/index.aspx and determine which time of year more events occurred in. I am not going to compile that for you.
$endgroup$
– CrossRoads
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@reirab Indeed. I didn't have access to my books when I wrote that comment, so I figured I'd stick to the figure I remembered as a rule of thumb and an altitude range where I definitely remembered it applying linearly. That was good enough for my purposes here.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I was watching The Flight Channel videos and have noticed that the accidents seem to happen more often in winter months (for the Northern Hemisphere). Are there some statistics to back this claim?
It seems logical: Winter months means icing on wings, slippery runways, etc. Are there any not so obvious reasons for the increased accident rate during winter?
weather accidents accident-statistics
edited 2 days ago
ymb1
69.5k7220369
asked 2 days ago
user38423user38423
441
New contributor
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
$endgroup$
I was watching The Flight Channel videos and have noticed that the accidents seem to happen more often in winter months (for the Northern Hemisphere). Are there some statistics to back this claim?
It seems logical: Winter months means icing on wings, slippery runways, etc. Are there any not so obvious reasons for the increased accident rate during winter?
weather accidents accident-statistics
weather accidents accident-statistics
edited 2 days ago
ymb1
69.5k7220369
asked 2 days ago
user38423user38423
441
New contributor
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
edited 2 days ago
ymb1
69.5k7220369
asked 2 days ago
user38423user38423
441
New contributor
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
edited 2 days ago
ymb1
69.5k7220369
edited 2 days ago
ymb1
69.5k7220369
edited 2 days ago
ymb1
69.5k7220369
69.5k7220369
asked 2 days ago
user38423user38423
441
New contributor
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked 2 days ago
user38423user38423
441
asked 2 days ago
user38423user38423
441
441
New contributor
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
New contributor
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
user38423 is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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1
$begingroup$
You can have icing in the middle of the summer, too, even without going to extremes. At about 2 deg C colder per 1000 ft altitude, if the air temperature at ground level is +20 C (not unreasonable in the summer months at latitudes where you get below freezing temperatures in the winter), at 10k ft the outside air temperature is around freezing. Add a bit of moisture to that and you get icing pretty quick.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@aCVn Indeed. And for aircraft that fly at higher altitudes, sub-freezing temperatures happen on virtually every flight. It's interesting watching the OAT on the in-flight entertainment displays on an airliner in the summer. It may be 100+ degrees F on the ramp and still be well below 0 F at cruising altitude.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
$begingroup$
You can review dates of when accidents happened here ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/index.aspx and determine which time of year more events occurred in. I am not going to compile that for you.
$endgroup$
– CrossRoads
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@reirab Indeed. I didn't have access to my books when I wrote that comment, so I figured I'd stick to the figure I remembered as a rule of thumb and an altitude range where I definitely remembered it applying linearly. That was good enough for my purposes here.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
add a comment |
1
$begingroup$
You can have icing in the middle of the summer, too, even without going to extremes. At about 2 deg C colder per 1000 ft altitude, if the air temperature at ground level is +20 C (not unreasonable in the summer months at latitudes where you get below freezing temperatures in the winter), at 10k ft the outside air temperature is around freezing. Add a bit of moisture to that and you get icing pretty quick.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@aCVn Indeed. And for aircraft that fly at higher altitudes, sub-freezing temperatures happen on virtually every flight. It's interesting watching the OAT on the in-flight entertainment displays on an airliner in the summer. It may be 100+ degrees F on the ramp and still be well below 0 F at cruising altitude.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
$begingroup$
You can review dates of when accidents happened here ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/index.aspx and determine which time of year more events occurred in. I am not going to compile that for you.
$endgroup$
– CrossRoads
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@reirab Indeed. I didn't have access to my books when I wrote that comment, so I figured I'd stick to the figure I remembered as a rule of thumb and an altitude range where I definitely remembered it applying linearly. That was good enough for my purposes here.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
1
1
$begingroup$
You can have icing in the middle of the summer, too, even without going to extremes. At about 2 deg C colder per 1000 ft altitude, if the air temperature at ground level is +20 C (not unreasonable in the summer months at latitudes where you get below freezing temperatures in the winter), at 10k ft the outside air temperature is around freezing. Add a bit of moisture to that and you get icing pretty quick.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
$begingroup$
You can have icing in the middle of the summer, too, even without going to extremes. At about 2 deg C colder per 1000 ft altitude, if the air temperature at ground level is +20 C (not unreasonable in the summer months at latitudes where you get below freezing temperatures in the winter), at 10k ft the outside air temperature is around freezing. Add a bit of moisture to that and you get icing pretty quick.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@aCVn Indeed. And for aircraft that fly at higher altitudes, sub-freezing temperatures happen on virtually every flight. It's interesting watching the OAT on the in-flight entertainment displays on an airliner in the summer. It may be 100+ degrees F on the ramp and still be well below 0 F at cruising altitude.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@aCVn Indeed. And for aircraft that fly at higher altitudes, sub-freezing temperatures happen on virtually every flight. It's interesting watching the OAT on the in-flight entertainment displays on an airliner in the summer. It may be 100+ degrees F on the ramp and still be well below 0 F at cruising altitude.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
$begingroup$
You can review dates of when accidents happened here ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/index.aspx and determine which time of year more events occurred in. I am not going to compile that for you.
$endgroup$
– CrossRoads
2 days ago
$begingroup$
You can review dates of when accidents happened here ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/index.aspx and determine which time of year more events occurred in. I am not going to compile that for you.
$endgroup$
– CrossRoads
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@reirab Indeed. I didn't have access to my books when I wrote that comment, so I figured I'd stick to the figure I remembered as a rule of thumb and an altitude range where I definitely remembered it applying linearly. That was good enough for my purposes here.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@reirab Indeed. I didn't have access to my books when I wrote that comment, so I figured I'd stick to the figure I remembered as a rule of thumb and an altitude range where I definitely remembered it applying linearly. That was good enough for my purposes here.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
add a comment |
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
I'd argue fall and spring bring more unpredictable weather, and slippery runways are year-round in the tropics.
That being said, for all jet (commercial) accidents, the weather-related contributing threats are:
- Meteorology (e.g., failure to identify threats before a flight) 30%
- Windy conditions 16%
- Poor visibility 10%
- Thunderstorms 9%
- Icing 1%
- Poor braking action (e.g., slippery runways) 10% (falls under airport facilities, not meteorology)
All figures are from PDF page 172 of the IATA 2017 Safety Report.
Given the opening statement, [near ground] icing is more attributable to cold winters than the rest. The rest are not limited to Dec–Mar in the Northern Hemisphere. The report does not attribute the seasons to the accidents.
answered 2 days ago
ymb1ymb1
69.5k7220369
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
It's true that rain can cause runways to be slippery year-round... but not typically the same degree of slippery that snow/ice causes them to be. The coefficient of friction of tires on smooth ice is much lower than on a wet road in most cases. And while poor braking action is certainly a concern with contaminated runways, ice also significantly increases the odds of loss of directional control leading to excursions off the side of the runway.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
add a comment |
Your Answer
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1 Answer
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$begingroup$
I'd argue fall and spring bring more unpredictable weather, and slippery runways are year-round in the tropics.
That being said, for all jet (commercial) accidents, the weather-related contributing threats are:
- Meteorology (e.g., failure to identify threats before a flight) 30%
- Windy conditions 16%
- Poor visibility 10%
- Thunderstorms 9%
- Icing 1%
- Poor braking action (e.g., slippery runways) 10% (falls under airport facilities, not meteorology)
All figures are from PDF page 172 of the IATA 2017 Safety Report.
Given the opening statement, [near ground] icing is more attributable to cold winters than the rest. The rest are not limited to Dec–Mar in the Northern Hemisphere. The report does not attribute the seasons to the accidents.
answered 2 days ago
ymb1ymb1
69.5k7220369
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
It's true that rain can cause runways to be slippery year-round... but not typically the same degree of slippery that snow/ice causes them to be. The coefficient of friction of tires on smooth ice is much lower than on a wet road in most cases. And while poor braking action is certainly a concern with contaminated runways, ice also significantly increases the odds of loss of directional control leading to excursions off the side of the runway.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'd argue fall and spring bring more unpredictable weather, and slippery runways are year-round in the tropics.
That being said, for all jet (commercial) accidents, the weather-related contributing threats are:
- Meteorology (e.g., failure to identify threats before a flight) 30%
- Windy conditions 16%
- Poor visibility 10%
- Thunderstorms 9%
- Icing 1%
- Poor braking action (e.g., slippery runways) 10% (falls under airport facilities, not meteorology)
All figures are from PDF page 172 of the IATA 2017 Safety Report.
Given the opening statement, [near ground] icing is more attributable to cold winters than the rest. The rest are not limited to Dec–Mar in the Northern Hemisphere. The report does not attribute the seasons to the accidents.
answered 2 days ago
ymb1ymb1
69.5k7220369
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
It's true that rain can cause runways to be slippery year-round... but not typically the same degree of slippery that snow/ice causes them to be. The coefficient of friction of tires on smooth ice is much lower than on a wet road in most cases. And while poor braking action is certainly a concern with contaminated runways, ice also significantly increases the odds of loss of directional control leading to excursions off the side of the runway.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I'd argue fall and spring bring more unpredictable weather, and slippery runways are year-round in the tropics.
That being said, for all jet (commercial) accidents, the weather-related contributing threats are:
- Meteorology (e.g., failure to identify threats before a flight) 30%
- Windy conditions 16%
- Poor visibility 10%
- Thunderstorms 9%
- Icing 1%
- Poor braking action (e.g., slippery runways) 10% (falls under airport facilities, not meteorology)
All figures are from PDF page 172 of the IATA 2017 Safety Report.
Given the opening statement, [near ground] icing is more attributable to cold winters than the rest. The rest are not limited to Dec–Mar in the Northern Hemisphere. The report does not attribute the seasons to the accidents.
answered 2 days ago
ymb1ymb1
69.5k7220369
$endgroup$
I'd argue fall and spring bring more unpredictable weather, and slippery runways are year-round in the tropics.
That being said, for all jet (commercial) accidents, the weather-related contributing threats are:
- Meteorology (e.g., failure to identify threats before a flight) 30%
- Windy conditions 16%
- Poor visibility 10%
- Thunderstorms 9%
- Icing 1%
- Poor braking action (e.g., slippery runways) 10% (falls under airport facilities, not meteorology)
All figures are from PDF page 172 of the IATA 2017 Safety Report.
Given the opening statement, [near ground] icing is more attributable to cold winters than the rest. The rest are not limited to Dec–Mar in the Northern Hemisphere. The report does not attribute the seasons to the accidents.
answered 2 days ago
ymb1ymb1
69.5k7220369
edited 2 days ago
answered 2 days ago
ymb1ymb1
69.5k7220369
answered 2 days ago
ymb1ymb1
69.5k7220369
answered 2 days ago
ymb1ymb1
69.5k7220369
69.5k7220369
$begingroup$
It's true that rain can cause runways to be slippery year-round... but not typically the same degree of slippery that snow/ice causes them to be. The coefficient of friction of tires on smooth ice is much lower than on a wet road in most cases. And while poor braking action is certainly a concern with contaminated runways, ice also significantly increases the odds of loss of directional control leading to excursions off the side of the runway.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
add a comment |
$begingroup$
It's true that rain can cause runways to be slippery year-round... but not typically the same degree of slippery that snow/ice causes them to be. The coefficient of friction of tires on smooth ice is much lower than on a wet road in most cases. And while poor braking action is certainly a concern with contaminated runways, ice also significantly increases the odds of loss of directional control leading to excursions off the side of the runway.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
$begingroup$
It's true that rain can cause runways to be slippery year-round... but not typically the same degree of slippery that snow/ice causes them to be. The coefficient of friction of tires on smooth ice is much lower than on a wet road in most cases. And while poor braking action is certainly a concern with contaminated runways, ice also significantly increases the odds of loss of directional control leading to excursions off the side of the runway.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
$begingroup$
It's true that rain can cause runways to be slippery year-round... but not typically the same degree of slippery that snow/ice causes them to be. The coefficient of friction of tires on smooth ice is much lower than on a wet road in most cases. And while poor braking action is certainly a concern with contaminated runways, ice also significantly increases the odds of loss of directional control leading to excursions off the side of the runway.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
add a comment |
user38423 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
user38423 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
user38423 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
user38423 is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
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$begingroup$
You can have icing in the middle of the summer, too, even without going to extremes. At about 2 deg C colder per 1000 ft altitude, if the air temperature at ground level is +20 C (not unreasonable in the summer months at latitudes where you get below freezing temperatures in the winter), at 10k ft the outside air temperature is around freezing. Add a bit of moisture to that and you get icing pretty quick.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@aCVn Indeed. And for aircraft that fly at higher altitudes, sub-freezing temperatures happen on virtually every flight. It's interesting watching the OAT on the in-flight entertainment displays on an airliner in the summer. It may be 100+ degrees F on the ramp and still be well below 0 F at cruising altitude.
$endgroup$
– reirab
2 days ago
$begingroup$
You can review dates of when accidents happened here ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/index.aspx and determine which time of year more events occurred in. I am not going to compile that for you.
$endgroup$
– CrossRoads
2 days ago
$begingroup$
@reirab Indeed. I didn't have access to my books when I wrote that comment, so I figured I'd stick to the figure I remembered as a rule of thumb and an altitude range where I definitely remembered it applying linearly. That was good enough for my purposes here.
$endgroup$
– a CVn
2 days ago