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Updated:   2013 Jun 12, 04:54 UT

Event Rank : 4


(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).

THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

On 2013 Jul 30 UT, the 258 km diameter asteroid (10199) Chariklo will occult a 14.7 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a very large uncertainty path that may cross Australia or New Zealand.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.8 mag to 18.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.2 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly
provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys),
and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

• Event Rank : 4
  


• Date and approx. UT time of event : 2013 Jul 30, 14:31 - 2013 Jul 30, 14:42 UT
  (Refer to map(s) for your own location)
  


• Magnitude of target star : 14.7
  


• Magnitude drop [mag] : 3.8
  


• Estimated maximum duration [s] : 19.2
  


• Phase of moon, angular distance : 41 % sunlit, 148° distance
  


• Sun : 125° distance
  


• Rough path description : Australia, SE Asia
  

• Name : 2UCAC 15096659
  


• Constellation : Scorpius
  


• J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"]: RA: 16 43 44.7419 DE: -39 25 56.531
  


• Position source : mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4
  


• Standard error : RA,DE ["]: ( .068, .070 )
  


• V mag [mag] : 14.7
  


• B mag [mag] : 0.0
  


• Remarks : (none)
  

• Number, name : (10199) Chariklo
  


• Approx. diameter [km] : 258
  


• Approx. diameter [arcsec] : .025
  


• Distance from Earth [AU] : 13.97100
  


• Source of used astrometry : FASTT MPC (via Astdys)
  


• Number of used observations : 540
  


• Number of rejected observations : 7
  


• Time covered by the observations : 1988 Nov 05 - 2011 Aug 29
  


• 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : 0.519, 0.059, 81°
  


• Remarks : (none)
  


• Orbital Elements for (10199) Chariklo :
  
  
  Mean Anomaly = 55.66631408 deg
  
  Arg. of Pericenter = 241.43250230 deg
  
  Long. of Node = 300.38726734 deg
  
  Inclination = 23.40856436 deg
  
  Eccentricity = 0.17094316
  
  Semimajor Axis = 15.74112817 AU
  
  Perihelion Dist = 13.05028998 AU
  
  Magnitude : H = 6.55, G = 0.15
  
  Epoch of Elements = MJD 56503.60700000 TDT (2013 Jul 30.607)


• Update computed by : Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).
  

• Approximate projected width [km] : 368
  


• Uncertainty interval [path widths] : +/- 16.62 (1 sigma)
  


• Uncertainty interval [seconds] : +/- 220.9 (1 sigma)
  


• Uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["] : (+/- .517 +/- .121) (1 sigma)
  


• Uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : ( .523", .091", 81° ) (1 sigma)
  


• Approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 13.4366
  
  


• 
  

  Important Note regarding Accuracy:
  The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
  

  
  

  Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
  

  
  

  We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
  

  
  

  In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
  
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• Distance from center of occultation path:
  
  
  
  
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• Path Co-ordinates :
  

 Occultation of 2UCAC 15096659 by 10199 Chariklo on 2013 Jul 30 
 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
 E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
 112 0 0 - 1 27 54 14 38 13 44 211 -56 0 50 26 - 3 38 58 .. .. .. -54 20 34
 113 0 0 - 2 20 48 14 38 2 44 212 -57 - 0 5 30 - 4 29 17 .. .. .. -54 39 36
 114 0 0 - 3 11 16 14 37 52 44 213 -59 - 0 58 46 - 5 17 22 .. .. .. -54 57 52
 115 0 0 - 3 59 25 14 37 41 44 215 -60 - 1 49 30 - 6 3 17 .. .. .. -55 15 24
 116 0 0 - 4 45 20 14 37 31 44 216 -61 - 2 37 48 - 6 47 8 .. .. .. -55 32 12

 117 0 0 - 5 29 7 14 37 21 44 217 -62 - 3 23 47 - 7 28 59 .. .. .. -55 48 19
 118 0 0 - 6 10 51 14 37 12 44 218 -63 - 4 7 34 - 8 8 55 .. .. .. -56 3 44
 119 0 0 - 6 50 36 14 37 2 44 219 -64 - 4 49 14 - 8 46 59 .. .. .. -56 18 29
 120 0 0 - 7 28 27 14 36 52 44 220 -66 - 5 28 52 - 9 23 16 .. .. .. -56 32 35
 121 0 0 - 8 4 28 14 36 43 44 221 -67 - 6 6 32 - 9 57 49 .. .. .. -56 46 3

 122 0 0 - 8 38 41 14 36 34 44 222 -68 - 6 42 18 -10 30 41 .. .. .. -56 58 54
 123 0 0 - 9 11 12 14 36 25 44 223 -69 - 7 16 15 -11 1 55 .. .. .. -57 11 9
 124 0 0 - 9 42 2 14 36 16 43 223 -70 - 7 48 25 -11 31 33 .. .. .. -57 22 47
 125 0 0 -10 11 15 14 36 8 43 224 -71 - 8 18 53 -11 59 39 .. .. .. -57 33 51
 126 0 0 -10 38 53 14 35 59 43 225 -72 - 8 47 40 -12 26 15 .. .. .. -57 44 21

 127 0 0 -11 4 59 14 35 51 42 226 -73 - 9 14 51 -12 51 22 .. .. .. -57 54 17
 128 0 0 -11 29 35 14 35 43 42 226 -74 - 9 40 27 -13 15 3 .. .. .. -58 3 41
 129 0 0 -11 52 42 14 35 35 42 227 -75 -10 4 30 -13 37 21 .. .. .. -58 12 32
 130 0 0 -12 14 24 14 35 27 41 228 -76 -10 27 3 -13 58 15 .. .. .. -58 20 51
 131 0 0 -12 34 41 14 35 19 41 228 -77 -10 48 8 -14 17 49 .. .. .. -58 28 40

 132 0 0 -12 53 35 14 35 11 40 229 -78 -11 7 46 -14 36 4 .. .. .. -58 35 57
 133 0 0 -13 11 9 14 35 4 40 229 -79 -11 26 0 -14 53 1 .. .. .. -58 42 45
 134 0 0 -13 27 22 14 34 57 39 230 -80 -11 42 50 -15 8 41 .. .. .. -58 49 2
 135 0 0 -13 42 17 14 34 49 39 230 -81 -11 58 19 -15 23 5 .. .. .. -58 54 51
 136 0 0 -13 55 55 14 34 42 38 230 -82 -12 12 26 -15 36 15 .. .. .. -59 0 10

 137 0 0 -14 8 16 14 34 35 37 231 -83 -12 25 14 -15 48 11 .. .. .. -59 5 0
 138 0 0 -14 19 21 14 34 29 37 231 -84 -12 36 44 -15 58 55 .. .. .. -59 9 22
 139 0 0 -14 29 12 14 34 22 36 231 -84 -12 46 55 -16 8 26 .. .. .. -59 13 15
 140 0 0 -14 37 48 14 34 15 35 232 -85 -12 55 50 -16 16 46 .. .. .. -59 16 41
 141 0 0 -14 45 11 14 34 9 35 232 -86 -13 3 28 -16 23 55 .. .. .. -59 19 39

 142 0 0 -14 51 21 14 34 2 34 232 -86 -13 9 50 -16 29 54 .. .. .. -59 22 10
 143 0 0 -14 56 19 14 33 56 33 232 -86 -13 14 57 -16 34 43 .. .. .. -59 24 13
 144 0 0 -15 0 4 14 33 50 33 232 -86 -13 18 48 -16 38 22 .. .. .. -59 25 48
 145 0 0 -15 2 36 14 33 44 32 233 -86 -13 21 25 -16 40 51 .. .. .. -59 26 57
 146 0 0 -15 3 57 14 33 38 31 233 -86 -13 22 47 -16 42 11 .. .. .. -59 27 38

 147 0 0 -15 4 6 14 33 33 30 233 -85 -13 22 53 -16 42 21 .. .. .. -59 27 52
 148 0 0 -15 3 2 14 33 27 30 233 -84 -13 21 45 -16 41 21 .. .. .. -59 27 39
 149 0 0 -15 0 46 14 33 22 29 233 -83 -13 19 22 -16 39 12 .. .. .. -59 26 59
 150 0 0 -14 57 18 14 33 16 28 233 -83 -13 15 43 -16 35 53 .. .. .. -59 25 51
 151 0 0 -14 52 36 14 33 11 27 233 -82 -13 10 48 -16 31 23 .. .. .. -59 24 17

 152 0 0 -14 46 41 14 33 6 27 233 -81 -13 4 37 -16 25 42 .. .. .. -59 22 15
 153 0 0 -14 39 31 14 33 1 26 233 -80 -12 57 8 -16 18 50 .. .. .. -59 19 45
 154 0 0 -14 31 7 14 32 56 25 233 -79 -12 48 21 -16 10 46 .. .. .. -59 16 48
Uncertainty in time = +/- 394 secs

Prediction of 2012 Jun 2.0

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