Demography

World Jewish Population (2002)
by Professor Sergio della Pergola

Sergio DellaPergola, "World Jewish Population 2002",
American Jewish Year Book, 102, New York, 2002.

THE WORLD’S JEWISH POPULATION was estimated at 13.3 million
at the beginning of 2002—an increase of about 40,000
over the previous year's revised estimate (1).

Figures on population size, characteristics and trends are
a primary tool in the assessment of Jewish community needs
and prospects at the local level and worldwide. The estimates
for major regions and individual countries reported in this
article reflect a prolonged and ongoing effort to study scientifically
the demography of contemporary world Jewry. Data collection
and comparative research have benefited from the collaboration
of scholars and institutions in many countries, including
replies to direct inquiries regarding current estimates. It
should be emphasized, however, that the elaboration of a worldwide
set of estimates for the Jewish populations of the various
countries is beset with difficulties and uncertainties. Users
of Jewish population estimates should be aware of these difficulties
and of the inherent limitations of our estimates.

Major geopolitical and socioeconomic changes have affected
the world scene since the end of the 1980s, particularly the
political breakup of the Soviet Union, Germany's reunion,
South Africa's political transition, problems with Latin American
economies, and the volatile situation in Israel and the Middle
East. Jewish population trends were most sensitive to these
developments, large-scale emigration from the former USSR
(FSU) and rapid population growth in Israel being the most
visible effects. Geographical mobility and the increased fragmentation
of the global system of nations notwithstanding, over 80 percent
of world Jewry live in two countries, the United States and
Israel, and 95 percent are concentrated in ten countries.
The aggregate of these major Jewish population centers virtually
determines the assessment of world Jewry's total size.

Main Problems in Jewish Population Research

DETERMINANTS OF JEWISH POPULATION CHANGE

One fundamental aspect of population in general and of Jewish
population in particular is its perpetual change. Population
size and composition continuously change reflecting a well-known
array of determinants. Two of these are shared by all populations:
(a) the balance of vital events (births and deaths); (b) the
balance of international migration (immigration and emigration).
Both of these factors affect increases or decreases in the
physical presence of individuals in a given place. The third
determinant consists of identificational changes (accessions
and secessions) and only applies to populations defined by
some cultural or symbolic peculiarity, as is the case with
Jews. The latter type of change does not affect people's physical
presence but rather their willingness to identify with a specific
religious, ethnic or otherwise culturally defined group.

The country figures presented here for 2002 were updated from
those for 2001 in accordance with the known or estimated changes
in the interval—vital events, migrations, and identificational
changes. In our updating procedure, whether or not exact data
on intervening changes are available, we consistently apply
the known or assumed direction of change and accordingly add
to or subtract from previous Jewish population estimates.
If there is evidence that intervening changes balanced-off,
Jewish population remains unchanged. This procedure proved
highly efficient in the past. Whenever improved Jewish population
figures became available reflecting a new census or survey,
our annually updated estimates generally proved on target.

The more recent findings basically confirm the estimates we
had reported in previous AJYB volumes and, perhaps more importantly,
our interpretation of the trends now prevailing in the demography
of world Jewry. Concisely stated, these involve a positive
balance of vital events among Jews in Israel and a negative
one in nearly all other Jewish communities; a positive migration
balance for Israel, the United States, Germany and a few other
western countries, and a negative one in Latin America, Eastern
Europe, Muslim countries, and some western countries as well;
a positive balance of accessions and secessions in Israel,
and an often negative or in any event rather uncertain one
elsewhere. While allowing for improvements and corrections,
the 2002 population estimates highlight the increasing complexity
of the sociodemographic and identificational processes underlying
the definition of Jewish populations, hence the estimates
of their sizes. This is the more so at a time of enhanced
international migration often implying double counts of people
on the move. Consequently, as will be clarified in the following
of this article, the analyst has to come to terms with the
paradox of the permanently provisional character of Jewish
population estimates.

SOURCES OF DATA

In general, the amount and quality of documentation on Jewish
population size and characteristics is far from satisfactory.
In recent years, however, important new data and estimates
became available for several countries through official population
censuses and Jewish sponsored sociodemographic surveys. National
censuses yielded results on Jewish populations in the Soviet
Union (1989), Switzerland (1990), Canada, South Africa, Australia,
and New Zealand (both in 1991 and 1996), Brazil, Ireland,
the Czech Republic, and India (1991), Romania and Bulgaria
(1992), the Russian Republic and Macedonia (1994), Israel
(1995), Belarus, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan (1999),
and Latvia (2000). The U.K. 2001 census included a new optional
question on religion. Permanent national population registers,
including information on the Jewish religious or national
group exist in several European countries (Switzerland, Norway,
Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), and in Israel.

Where official population sources on Jewish population are
not available, independent sociodemographic studies have provided
most valuable information on Jewish demography and socioeconomic
stratification, as well as on Jewish identification. The largest
of such studies so far have been the National Jewish Population
Survey (NJPS) in the United States (1970-71 and 1990). Similar
surveys were conducted over the last decade in South Africa
(1991 and 1998), Mexico (1991), Lithuania (1993), the United
Kingdom and Chile (1995), Venezuela (1998-99), Hungary, the
Netherlands and Guatemala (1999), Moldova and Sweden (2000).
Several further Jewish population studies were separately
conducted in major cities in the United States and in other
countries. Additional evidence on Jewish population trends
can be obtained from the systematic monitoring of membership
registers, vital statistics, and migration records available
from Jewish communities and other Jewish organizations in
many countries or cities, notably in the United Kingdom, Germany,
and Buenos Aires. Detailed data on Jewish immigration routinely
collected in Israel help to assess changing Jewish population
sizes in other countries. Some of this ongoing research is
part of a coordinated effort to constantly update the profile
of world Jewry.

A new round of official censuses and Jewish surveys is expected
to highlight the demographic profile of large Jewish communities
at the dawn of the new millennium, primarily the U.S. National
Jewish Population Survey (2000-01), the 2001 censuses of Canada,
the Ukraine and Australia, and the 2002 census of the Russian
Republic. These new findings will allow for a significant
revision and improvement of the currently available data base
on Jewish population.

DEFINITIONS

A major problem in Jewish population estimates periodically
circulated by individual scholars or Jewish organizations
is a lack of coherence and uniformity in the definition criteria
followed—when the issue of defining the Jewish population
is addressed at all. Three operative concepts should be considered
in order to put the study of Jewish demography on serious
comparative ground.

The core Jewish population includes all those who, when asked,
identify themselves as Jews; or, if the respondent is a different
person in the same household, are identified by him/her as
Jews. This is an intentionally comprehensive and pragmatic
approach reflecting the nature of most available sources of
data on Jewish population. In countries other than Israel,
such data often derive from population censuses or social
surveys where the interviewees decide how to answer to relevant
questions on religious or ethnic preferences. Definitions
of a person as a Jew which reflect subjective feelings broadly
overlap but do not necessarily coincide with Halakhah (Rabbinic
law) or other normatively binding definitions. They do not
depend on any measure of that person’s Jewish commitment
or behavior—in terms of religiosity, beliefs, knowledge,
communal affiliation, or otherwise. The core Jewish population
includes all converts to Judaism by any procedure, as well
other people who declare to be Jewish. Also included are persons
of Jewish parentage who claim no current religious or ethnic
belonging. Persons of Jewish parentage who adopted another
religion are excluded, as well as other individuals who did
not convert out but explicitly identify with a non-Jewish
group. In Israel personal status is subject to the ruling
of the Ministry of the Interior which relies on rabbinical
authorities. Therefore the core Jewish population does not
simply express subjective identification but reflects definite
legal rules, namely Halakhah.

The enlarged Jewish population includes the sum of (a) the
core Jewish population; (b) all other persons of Jewish parentage
who are not Jews currently (or at the time of investigation);
and (c) all of the respective further non-Jewish household
members (spouses, children, etc.). Non-Jews with Jewish background,
as far as they can be ascertained, include: (a) persons who
have themselves adopted another religion, even though they
may claim still to be Jews by ethnicity or religion; (b) other
persons with Jewish parentage who disclaim to be Jews. It
is customary in sociodemographic surveys to consider the religio-ethnic
identification of parents. Some censuses, however, do ask
about more distant ancestry. For both conceptual and practical
reasons, this enlarged definition does not include other non-Jewish
relatives who lack a Jewish background and live in exclusively
non-Jewish households.

The Law of Return, Israel’s distinctive legal framework
for the acceptance and absorption of new immigrants, awards
Jewish new immigrants immediate citizenship and other civil
rights. According to the current, amended version of the Law
of Return, a Jew is any person born to a Jewish mother, or
converted to Judaism (regardless of denomination—Orthodox,
Conservative, or Reform), who does not have another religious
identity. By ruling of Israel’s Supreme Court, conversion
from Judaism, as in the case of some ethnic Jews who currently
identify with another religion, entails loss of eligibility
for Law of Return purposes. The law, per se, does not affect
a person's Jewish status which as noted is adjudicated by
Israel's Ministry of Interior and rabbinical authorities.
The law extends its provisions to all current Jews and to
their Jewish or non-Jewish spouses, children, and grandchildren,
as well as to the spouses of such children and grandchildren.
As a result of its three-generation and lateral extension,
the Law of Return applies to a wide population, one of significantly
wider scope than core and enlarged Jewish populations defined
above. It is actually quite difficult to estimate what the
total size of the Law of Return population could be. These
higher estimates are not discussed below systematically, but
some notion of their possible extent is given for the major
countries.

The following estimates of Jewish population distribution
in each continent (table 1 below), country (tables 2-9), and
metropolitan area (table 10) consistently aim at the concept
of core Jewish population.

Presentation of Data

Until 1999, Jewish population estimates presented in the American
Jewish Year Book referred to December 31 of the year preceding
by two the date of publication. Since 2000 our estimates refer
to January 1 of the current year of publication. The effort
to provide the most recent possible picture entails a shorter
span of time for evaluation and correction of available information,
hence a somewhat greater margin of inaccuracy. Indeed, where
appropriate, we revised our previous estimates in the light
of newly accrued information on Jewish populations (see tables
1 and 2). Corrections were also applied retrospectively to
the 2001 figures for major geographical regions so as to ensure
a better base for comparisons with the 2002 estimates. Corrections
of the latest estimates, if needed, will be presented in future
volumes of the AJYB.

ACCURACY RATING

We provide separate figures for each country with approximately
100 or more resident core Jews. Residual estimates of Jews
living in other smaller communities supplement some of the
continental totals. For each of the reported countries, the
four columns in tables 3-7 provide an estimate of mid-year
2000 total population, the estimated 1/1/2002 Jewish population,
the proportion of Jews per 1,000 of total population, and
a rating of the accuracy of the Jewish population estimate.

There is wide variation in the quality of the Jewish population
estimates for different countries. For many Diaspora countries
it would be best to indicate a range (minimum-maximum) rather
than a definite figure for the number of Jews. It would be
confusing, however, for the reader to be confronted with a
long list of ranges; this would also complicate the regional
and world totals. The figures actually indicated for most
of the Diaspora communities should be understood as being
the central value of the plausible range of the respective
core Jewish populations. The relative magnitude of this range
varies inversely to the accuracy of the estimate.

The three main elements that affect the accuracy of each estimate
are the nature and quality of the base data, how recent the
base data are, and the method of updating. A simple code,
combining these elements, is used to provide a general evaluation
of the reliability of the Jewish population figures reported
in the detailed tables below. The code indicates different
quality levels of the reported estimates: (A) Base figure
derived from countrywide census or relatively reliable Jewish
population survey; updated on the basis of full or partial
information on Jewish population movements in the respective
country during the intervening period. (B) Base figure derived
from less accurate but recent countrywide Jewish population
data; partial information on population movements in the intervening
period. (C) Base figure derived from less recent sources,
and/or unsatisfactory or partial coverage of a country's Jewish
population; updating according to demographic information
illustrative of regional demographic trends. (D) Base figure
essentially speculative; no reliable updating procedure. In
categories (A), (B), and (C), the year in which the country’s
base figure or important partial updates were obtained are
also stated. For countries whose Jewish population estimate
for 2002 was not only updated but also revised in the light
of improved information, the sign "X" is appended
to the accuracy rating.

One additional tool for updating Jewish population estimates
is provided by a new set of demographic projections developed
at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Such projections extrapolate
the most likely observed or expected trends out of a Jewish
population baseline assessed by detailed age-sex groups as
of end-year 1995. Even where reliable information on the dynamics
of Jewish population change is not immediately available,
the powerful connection that generally exists between age
composition of a population and the respective vital and migration
movements helps to provide plausible scenarios of the developments
bound to occur in the short term. In the lack of better data,
we used indications from these projections to refine the 2002
estimates as against previous years. On the other hand, projections
are clearly shaped by a definite and comparatively limited
set of assumptions and need to be periodically updated in
the light of actual demographic developments.

Global Overview

WORLD JEWISH POPULATION SIZE

The size of world Jewry at the beginning of 2002 is assessed
at 13,296,100. World Jewry constituted about 2.19 per 1,000
of the world’s total population. One in about 457 people
in the world is a Jew. According to the revised figures, between
2001 and 2002 the Jewish population grew by an estimated 44,000
people, or about 0.3 percent. This compares with a total world
population growth rate of 1.4 percent (0.1 percent in more
developed countries, 1.7 percent in less developed countries).
Despite all the imperfections in the estimates, world Jewry
continued to be close to “zero population growth”
with increase in Israel (1.5 percent) slightly overcoming
the decline in the Diaspora (-0.3 percent).

Table 1 gives an overall picture of Jewish population for
the beginning of 2002 as compared to 2001. For 2001 the originally
published estimates are presented along with somewhat revised
figures that take into account, retrospectively, the corrections
made in certain country estimates, in the light of improved
information. These corrections resulted in a net decrease
of the 2001 world Jewry’s estimated size by 2,000. This
change resulted from upward corrections for Azerbaijan (+500),
and downward corrections for Turkey (-2,000) and Tajikistan
(-500). Explanations are given below for the reasons of these
corrections.

The number of Jews in Israel rose from 4,952,200 in 2001 to
5,025,000 at the beginning of 2002, an increase of 72,800
people, or 1.5 percent. In contrast, the estimated Jewish
population in the Diaspora declined from 8,299,900 (according
to the revised figures) to 8,271,100—a decrease of 28,800
people, or -0.3 percent. These changes primarily reflect the
continuing Jewish emigration from the FSU. In 2001, the estimated
Israel-Diaspora net migratory balance amounted to a gain of
about 15,000 Jews for Israel. Internal demographic evolution
(including vital events and conversions) produced a further
growth of about 58,000 among the Jewish population in Israel,
and a further loss of about 14,000 in the Diaspora. Recently,
instances of accession or “return” to Judaism
can be observed in connection with the emigration process
from Eastern Europe and Ethiopia, and the comprehensive provisions
of the Israeli Law of Return (see above). The return or first-time
access to Judaism of some of such previously unincluded or
unidentified individuals has contributed to slowing down the
pace of decline of the relevant Diaspora Jewish populations
and some further gains to the Jewish population in Israel.

(See Table 1)

As noted, corrections should be introduced in previously published
Jewish population estimates in the light of improved information
that became available at a later date. Table 2 provides a
synopsis of the world Jewish population estimates relating
to the period 1945-2002, as first published each year in the
American Jewish Year Book and as corrected retroactively,
incorporating all subsequent revisions. These revised data
correct, sometimes significantly, the figures published until
1980 by other authors, and since 1981 by ourselves. Thanks
to the development over the years of an improved data base,
these new revisions are not necessarily the same revised estimates
that we published year by year in the AJYB based on the information
that was available at each date. It is expected that further
retrospective revisions will be necessary as a product of
ongoing and future research.

The revised figures in table 2 clearly portray the slowing
down of Jewish population growth globally since World War
II. Based on a post-Holocaust world Jewish population estimate
of 11,000,000, a growth of 1,079,000 occurred between 1945
and 1960, followed by growths of 506,000 in the 1960s, 234,000
in the 1970s, 49,000 in the 1980s, and 344,000 in the 1990s.
While it took 13 years to add one million to world Jewry’s
post-war size, it took 38 years to add another million. The
modest recovery of the 1990s mostly reflects the already noted
cases of individuals first entering or returning to Judaism,
especially from Eastern Europe, as well as a short-lived “echo
effect” of the post-war “baby-boom” (see
below).

(See Table 2)

DISTRIBUTION BY MAJOR REGIONS

Just about half of the world’s Jews reside in the Americas,
with about 46 percent in North America. Over 38 percent live
in Asia, including the Asian Republics of the former USSR
(but not the Asian parts of the Russian Republic and Turkey)—most
of them in Israel. Europe, including the Asian territories
of the Russian Republic and Turkey, accounts for about 12
percent the total. Less than 2 percent of the world’s
Jews live in Africa and Oceania. Among the major geographical
regions listed in table 1, the number of Jews in Israel—and,
consequently, in total Asia—increased in 2001. Moderate
Jewish population gains were also estimated for the European
Union (including 15 member countries), and Oceania. Central
and South America, other regions in Europe, Asian countries
out of Israel, and Africa sustained decreases in Jewish population
size.

Individual Countries

THE AMERICAS

In 2002 the total number of Jews in the American continents
was estimated at close to 6.5 million. The overwhelming majority
(94 percent) resided in the United States and Canada, less
than 1 percent lived in Central America including Mexico,
and about 6 percent lived in South America—with Argentina
and Brazil the largest Jewish communities (see table 3).

(see Table 3)

United States. Field work for the 2000/01 National Jewish
Population Survey (NJPS), sponsored by United Jewish Communities
(UJC), was completed but final results were not yet available
at the time of this writing. The 1989/90 National Jewish Population
Survey (NJPS), provided the current benchmark information
about the size and characteristics of U.S. Jewry and the basis
for subsequent updates. In the summer of 1990 the core Jewish
population in the United States comprised 5,515,000 persons.
Of these, 185,000 were not born or raised as Jews but currently
identified with Judaism. An estimated 210,000 persons, not
included in the previous figures, were born or raised as Jews
but in 1990 identified with another religion. A further 1,115,000
people—thereof 415,000 adults and 700,000 children below
age 18—had a Jewish parent but had not themselves been
raised as Jews and declared a religion other than Judaism
at the time of survey. All together, these various groups
formed an extended Jewish population of 6,840,000. NJPS also
covered 1,350,000 non-Jewish-born members of eligible (Jewish
or mixed) households. The study’s enlarged Jewish population
thus reached about 8.2 millions. The 1990 Jewish population
estimates are within the range of a sampling error of plus
or minus 3.5 percent. This means a 5.3-5.7 million range for
the core Jewish population in 1990.

Since 1990, the international migration balance of U.S. Jewry
should have generated Jewish population increase. According
to HIAS (Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society), the main agency involved
in assisting Jewish migration from the FSU to the United States,
over 250,000 migrants were assisted over the period 1991-2000.
These figures refer to the enlarged Jewish population concept,
therefore incorporating the non-Jewish members of mixed households.
The actual number of FSU Jews settling in the U.S. was therefore
somewhat smaller, yet quite substantial though steadily declining
since 1992. More migrants arrived from Israel, Latin America,
South Africa, Iran, and other countries. At the same time
Israeli statistics continue to show moderate but steady numbers
of immigrants from the United States. Between 1990 and 2000,
a total of about 20,000 American Jews went on aliyah, and
larger numbers of Israelis left the United States after a
prolonged stay and returned to Israel bringing with them their
U.S. born children.

The 1990 NJPS provided evidence of a variety of factors contributing
to slow down Jewish population growth in the U.S.: low levels
of “effectively Jewish” fertility, aging of the
Jewish population, increasing rates of outmarriage, declining
rates of conversion to Judaism (or “choosing”
Judaism), rather low proportions of children of mixed marriages
being identified as Jewish, and a growing tendency to adopt
non-Jewish rituals. As a consequence, a surplus of Jewish
deaths over Jewish births probably prevailed among U.S. Jewry.
From the NJPS benchmark core Jewish population of 5,515,000,
accounting for a positive balance of immigration net of emigration
and assuming some quantitative erosion in the light of recent
marriage, fertility, and age-composition trends, we estimated
the current Jewish population at 5,700,000—the world's
largest.

Another study completed in 2001 based on a countrywide sample,
the American Jewish Identification Survey (AJIS), estimated
a core Jewish population of 5,340,000 and an enlarged total
of 10 millions, including non-Jewish members of Jewish households
and households of Jewish descent without any core member.
AJIS aimed at replicating the 1990 NJPS methodology, whereas
the 2000/01 NJPS introduced several conceptual and technical
changes intended at improving its effectiveness in portraying
American Jewry. AJIS findings imply a decline of 175,000 in
the core Jewish population and an increase of 1,975,000 in
the non-core total versus 1990. The latter figure comprises
845,000 adults of Jewish parentage with other religions, 173,000
children with Jewish parentage and other religion, and 957,000
other non-Jews. On the face of AJIS, demographic and identificational
erosive processes shown by the 1990 NJPS significantly strengthened
during the 1990s. Our revision of the U.S. Jewish population
estimate will be determined once the 2000/01 NJPS become available.

The North American Jewish Data Bank (NAJDB) continued its
yearly compilation of local Jewish population estimates. These
are reported elsewhere in this volume. The NAJDB estimates
were updated to 6,136,000 in 2000, including an unknown percent
of non-Jewish members of Jewish households. Besides a significant
downward revision in 1991, following NJPS, changes in NAJDB
estimates reflected corrections and adaptations made in the
figures for several local communities—some of them in
the light of new local community studies. Clearly, compilations
of local estimates, even if as painstaking as in the case
of the NAJDB, are subject to a great many local biases, and
tend to fall behind the actual pace of national trends. This
is especially true in a context of vigorous internal migrations,
as in the United States. In our view, and in spite of sampling
biases, national surveys such as NJPS offer a more reliable
Jewish population baseline at the countrywide level than the
sum of local estimates.

Canada. As customary in Canada, the mid-decade 1996 census
provided information on ethnic origins whereas the 1991 census
included questions on both religion and ethnic origin, besides
information on year of immigration of the foreign-born, and
languages. In 1996, 351,705 Canadians reported a Jewish ethnic
origin, thereof 195,810 as a single response, and 155,900
as one selection in a multiple response with up to four options.
To interpret these data it is necessary to make reference
to the 1991 Canadian census which enumerated 318,070 Jews
according to religion. Of these, 281,680 also reported to
be Jewish by ethnicity (as one of up to four options to the
latter question), while 36,390 reported one or more other
ethnic origins. Another 38,245 persons reported no religion
and a Jewish ethnic origin, again as one of up to four options.
With due allowance for the latter group, a total core Jewish
population of 356,315 obtains for 1991. A further 49,640 Canadians
who reported being Jewish by ethnic origin but identified
with another religion (such as Catholic, Anglican, etc.),
were not included in the 1991 core estimate. Including them
would produce an extended Jewish population of 405,955 in
1991.

The 1991 census equivalent of the 1996 census figure of 351,705
ethnic Jews (including those not Jewish by religion, but excluding
those Jews who did not report a Jewish ethnic origin), was
349,565. Based on a similar criterion of ethnic origin, Canadian
Jewry thus increased by 2,140 people over the 1991-1996 period.
Though it should be stressed that the ethnic origin definition
is not consistent with our concept of a core Jewish population,
the evidence was of very slow Jewish population increase—notwithstanding
continuing immigration. Taking into account the increasingly
aged Jewish population structure, we suggest that in years
following the 1991 census the continuing migratory surplus
would have generated a modest surplus over the probably negative
balance of internal evolution. For the beginning of 2002 we
updated the 1991 baseline of 356,300 to 364,000, making the
Canadian Jewish population the world’s fourth-largest.
The 2001 census will provide a better baseline.

Central America. The 1991 population survey of the Jews in
the Mexico City metropolitan area pointed to a community less
affected than others in the Diaspora by the common trends
of low fertility, intermarriage and aging. Some comparatively
more traditional sectors in the Jewish community still contributed
a surplus of births over deaths, and overall—thanks
also to some immigration—the Jewish population was quite
stable or moderately increasing. The new medium Jewish population
estimate for 1991 was put at 37,500 in the Mexico City metropolitan
area, and at 40,000 nationally. Official Mexican censuses
over the years provided rather erratic and unreliable Jewish
population figures. This was the case with the 1990 census,
which came up with a national total of 57,918 (aged five and
over). As in the past, most of the problem derived from unacceptably
high figures for peripheral states. The new census figures
for the Mexico City metropolitan area (33,932 Jews aged five
and over in the Federal District and State of Mexico) came
quite close—in fact were slightly below—our survey’s
estimates. Taking into account a modest residual potential
for natural increase, as shown by the 1991 survey, but also
some emigration, we estimated the Jewish population at 40,400
in 2002.

The Jewish population was estimated at about 5,000 in Panama,
2,500 in Costa Rica, 1,500 in Puerto Rico, and 900 in Guatemala.

South America. Argentinean Jewry, the largest in Latin America
and seventh largest in the world, was marked by a negative
population balance. Various surveys conducted in some central
sections of Buenos Aires at the initiative of the Asociación
Mutualista Israelita Argentina (AMIA), as well as in several
provincial cities, pointed to growing aging and intermarriage.
Short of a major new survey in the Greater Buenos Aires area,
quality of national estimates remained quite inadequate. Since
the early 1960s, when the Jewish population was estimated
at 310,000, the pace of emigration and return migration was
significantly affected by the variable nature of economic
and political trends in the country, generating a negative
balance of external migrations. Most Jews lived in the Greater
Buenos Aires area, with about 25-30,000 left in provincial
cities and minor centers. The predominantly middle class Jewish
community suffered from Argentina's national economic crisis,
to the point of a problem of “new Jewish poverty”.
The Jewish institutional network was negatively affected,
including Jewish education. Between 1990 and 2000, over 10,000
persons migrated to Israel and numbers were significantly
rising in 2001/02, while unspecified numbers moved to other
countries. Diminishing numbers of burials performed by Jewish
funeral societies were another symptom of population decline,
though the high cost of Jewish funerals might induce some
Jewish families to prefer a non-Jewish ceremony. Accordingly,
the estimate for Argentinean Jewry was reduced to 195,000
in 2002.

In Brazil, the population census of 1991 indicated a Jewish
population of 86,816, a decline of 4,979 against the previous
1980 census. In 1991, 42,871 Jews lived in the state of São
Paulo (44,569 in 1980), 26,190 in the state of Rio de Janeiro
(29,157), 8,091 in Rio Grande do Sul (8,330), and 9,264 in
other states (9,739). Since some otherwise identifying Jews
might have failed to declare themselves as such in that census,
we had adopted a corrected estimate of 100,000 since 1980,
assuming that the overall balance of Jewish vital events,
identificational changes and external migrations was close
to zero. The 1991 census figures pointed to Jewish population
decline countrywide, most of it in Rio de Janeiro where Jewish
population was decreasing since 1960. In São Paulo—Brazil’s
major Jewish community—all previous census returns since
1940 and various other Jewish survey and register data supported
the perception of a growing community, but the 1991 census
figure contradicted that assumption. A 1992 study in the state
of Rio Grande do Sul and its capital Porto Alegre—Brazil’s
third largest community—unveiled an enlarged Jewish
population of about 11,000. The corresponding core Jewish
population could be estimated at about 9,000, some 10 percent
above the 1991 census figure and quite consistent with it.
In the light of this and other evidence of a substantially
stable Jewish population, though one confronting high rates
of intermarriage and a definite erosion in the younger age
groups, we estimated Brazil's Jewish population at 97,300
in 2002, the eleventh largest Jewish community in the world.

In Chile, a sociodemographic survey conducted in the Santiago
metropolitan area in 1995 indicated an enlarged Jewish population
of 21,450, of which 19,700 Jews and 1,750 non-Jewish relatives,
including persons not affiliated with any Jewish organization.
Assuming another 1,300 Jews living in smaller provincial communities,
a new countrywide estimate of 21,000 Jews was obtained. Previous
lower estimates reflecting results of the 1970 population
census, and a 1982-83 community survey, possibly overestimated
the net effects of Jewish emigration. The new survey portrayed
a rather stable community, with incipient signs of aging and
assimilation.

In Venezuela, a new sociodemographic survey was carried out
in 1998/99. Based on a comprehensive list of affiliated households
and an indicative sample of the unaffiliated, and supplemented
by a compilation of Jewish death records, the survey and subsequent
emigration trends suggested a Jewish population estimate of
15,800 in 2002.

On the strength of fragmentary information available, our
estimates for Uruguay, Colombia, and Peru were slightly reduced
to 22,300, 3,400, and 2,600 respectively.

EUROPE

Over 1.5 million Jews lived in Europe at the beginning of
2002, two thirds in Western Europe and one third in Eastern
Europe and the Balkan countries—including the Asian
territories of the Russian Republic and Turkey (see table
4). In 2001 Europe lost 1.4 percent of its Jewish population,
mainly through the continuing emigration from the European
republics of the FSU.

European Union. Incorporating fifteen countries since the
1995 accession of Austria, Finland and Sweden, the European
Union (EU) had an estimated combined Jewish population of
1,034,400—an increase of 0.2 percent over the previous
year. Different trends affected the Jewish populations in
each member country.

With the breakup of the USSR, France had the third largest
Jewish population in the world, after the United States and
Israel. The estimated size of French Jewry, assessed at 530,000
in the 1970s, was rather stable over the following 20 years.
The Jewish community of France continued to absorb a small
inflow of Jews from North Africa, its age composition being
younger than in other European countries. Migration to Israel
amounted to 7,500 in 1980-1989 and over 15,000 in 1990-2000.
Since the 1990’s, aging tended to determine a moderate
surplus of deaths over births, while intermarriage was steadily
growing. In view of these trends, our French Jewish population
estimate was revised to 525,000 in 1995 and 519,000 at the
beginning of 2002. A new survey completed in 2002 will soon
provide new insights on French Jewry.

A significant downward revision of the size of Jewish population
in the United Kingdom was released in 1998 by the Community
Research Unit (CRU) of the Board of Deputies of British Jews.
Current compilation of Jewish birth and death records showed
an excess of deaths over births in the range of about 1,000-1,500
a year. A survey of British Jews conducted in 1995 indicated
a significant rise in intermarriage (38 percent of all married
men, and 50 percent among Jewish men less than 30 years old),
implying increasing assimilatory losses. Further attrition
derived from emigration (over 7,000 emigrants to Israel in
1980-1989 and about 6,000 in 1990-2000). Allowing for a further
continuation of these well-established trends we adopted an
estimate of 273,500 for 2002 (fifth largest worldwide).

In 1990 Germany was politically reunited. In the former (West
German Federal Republic, the 1987 population census reported
32,319 Jews. Immigration compensated for the surplus of deaths
over births in this aging Jewish population. Estimates about
the small Jewish population in the former (East) German Democratic
Republic then ranged between 500 and 2,000. According to available
reports, over 150,000 immigrants from the FSU settled in united
Germany since the end of 1989, including non-Jewish family
members. Detailed records of Jews affiliated with the Zentralwohlfahrtstelle
der Juden in Deutschland (ZDJ) show an increase from 27,711
at the beginning of 1990 to 93,326 at the beginning of 2002.
By the same community registers, were it not for steady immigration
from the FSU, the number of Jews would have declined from
about 28,000 in 1990 to less than 18,000 in 2002, due to the
continuing excess of Jewish deaths over Jewish births. We
assume that there are enough incentives for most newcomers
to be willing to affiliate with the Jewish community, but
allow for some time lag between immigration and registration
with the organized Jewish community, and take into account
a certain amount of permanent non-affiliation. Assuming the
latter at about 10,000, an estimate of 103,000 core Jews (not
including non-Jewish members of households) obtained for 2002,
making Germany the eighth largest Jewish community worldwide.

Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands each had Jewish populations
ranging around 30,000. The tendency toward internal shrinkage
of all these Jewries was partially offset by immigration.
In Belgium, the size of Jewish population, estimated at 31,400,
was probably quite stable owing to the comparatively strong
Orthodox section in that community. In Italy, compulsory membership
in Jewish communities turned to voluntary since 1987. Although
most Jews reaffiliated, the new looser legal framework facilitated
the ongoing attrition of the Jewish population. Recent Jewish
community records for Milan indicated an affiliated Jewish
population of 6,500, against over 8,000 in the 1960s, despite
substantial immigration from other countries in the intervening
period. These and other data on declining birthrates in most
other cities prompted a reduction in our national estimate
for Italy to 29,400. In the Netherlands, a recent study indicated
a growing number of residents of Israeli origin, substantially
offsetting the declining trends among veteran Jews. In the
light of a new Jewish population survey that covered an enlarged
Jewish population of 43,000-45,000, including Israeli and
Russian new immigrants, we revised the core Jewish population
estimate at 28,000 in 2002.

Other EU member countries had smaller and, overall, slowly
declining Jewish populations. Possible exceptions are Sweden
and Spain, whose Jewish populations were very tentatively
estimated at 15,000 and 12,000, respectively, based on figures
on affiliation in the major cities. Austria’s permanent
Jewish population was estimated at 9,000. While a negative
balance of births and deaths has long prevailed, connected
with great aging and frequent outmarriage, immigration from
the FSU tended to offset internal losses. The small Jewish
populations in other Nordic countries were, on the whole,
numerically rather stable. In Ireland, the 1991 census indicated
1,581 Jews. Since 1961 the Jewish population has regularly
declined by 500-600 every ten years, leading to a 2002 estimate
of 1,000.

Other West Europe.

Few countries remain in Western Europe which have not joined
the EU. In 2002 they accounted for a combined Jewish population
of 19,700. The estimate of Switzerland’s Jewish population
was based on the results of the 1990 census. The official
count indicated 17,577 Jews as against 18,330 in 1980—a
decline of 4 percent. Allowing for undeclared Jews, and allowing
for about 1,000 emigrants to Israel during the 1990s, we put
the 2002 estimate at 17,700.

(See Table 4)

Former USSR (European parts).

Since 1989, the demographic situation of East European Jewry
was radically transformed following the dramatic geopolitical
changes in the region. Official governmental sources provide
the fundamental basis of information on the number of Jews
in the FSU. The Soviet Union’s censuses and subsequent
data distinguish the Jews as one recognized “nationality”
(ethnic groups). In a society that, until recently, left little
or no space to religions, the ethnic definition criterion
could be considered comprehensive and valid. Data from the
last all-Soviet population census, carried out in January
1989, revealed a total of 1,450,500 Jews, confirming the declining
trend shown by the previous three USSR censuses: 2,267,800
in 1959, 2,150,700 in 1970, and 1,810,900 in 1979.

Our reservation about USSR Jewish census figures in previous
AJYB volumes bears repeating: some underreporting is not impossible,
but it cannot be easily quantified and should not be exaggerated.
The prolonged existence of a totalitarian regime produced
conflicting effects on census declarations: on the one hand,
it stimulated a preference for other than Jewish nationalities
in the various parts of the FSU, especially in connection
with mixed marriages; on the other hand, it preserved a formal
Jewish identification by coercion, through the mandatory registration
of nationality on official documents such as internal passports.
Viewed conceptually, the census figures represent the core
Jewish population in the USSR. They actually constitute a
good example of a large and empirically measured core Jewish
population in the Diaspora, consisting of the aggregate of
self-identifying Jews. The figures of successive censuses
were remarkably consistent with one another, and with the
known patterns of emigration and internal demographic evolution
of the Jewish population in recent decades. Our estimates
reflect for each FSU republic separately all available data
and estimates concerning Jewish emigration, births, deaths,
and geographical mobility between republics.

Jewish emigration played the major role among demographic
changes intervening since 1989. The economic and political
crisis that culminated in the disintegration of the Soviet
Union as a state in 1991 generated a major emigration upsurge
in 1990 and 1991. Emigration continued at lower but significant
levels throughout 2001. Over the whole 1990-2000 period, over
1.4 million people emigrated from the FSU defined by the enlarged
Law of Return Jewish population definition. Of these, nearly
900,000 went to Israel, about 300,000 to the United States,
and over 200,000 chose other countries, mainly Germany. Out
of the total migrants, about 980,000 were Jewish by the core
definition. Periodical declines in the volume of emigration
should not be misconstrued: when compared to the fast declining
Jewish population figures in the FSU, the emigration trend
remained remarkably stable.

While mass emigration was an obvious factor in Jewish population
decrease, a heavy deficit of internal population dynamics
developed and even intensified due to the great aging which
is known to have prevailed for many decades among FSU Jewry.
For example, in 1993-1994, the balance of recorded vital events
in Russia included 2.8 Jewish births versus 30.0 deaths per
1,000 Jewish population; in Ukraine, the respective figures
were 4.2 and 35.9 per 1,000; in Belarus, 5.2 and 32.6 per
1,000; in Latvia, 3.1 and 24.5 per 1,000; in Moldova 5.9 and
34.6 per 1,000. These figures imply yearly losses of many
thousands to the respective Jewish populations. Frequencies
of outmarriage approached 80 percent among Jews who married
in Russia in the late 1980s, and in Ukraine and Latvia in
1996. Outmarried parents generally preferred a non-Jewish
nationality for their children. The significantly younger
age composition of Jewish emigrants exacerbated aging in the
countries of origin. As a result, Jewish population rapidly
shrank. On the strength of these considerations, our estimate
of the core Jewish population in the FSU (including the Asian
regions) was reduced from the census figure of 1,480,000 at
the beginning of 1989 (including Tats) to 890,000 in 1993,
and 435,000 at the beginning of 2002. Of these, 410,000 lived
in the European republics and 25,000 in the Asian republics
(see below). Tentative estimates of the enlarged Jewish population
including non-Jewish members of Jewish households would probably
be twice as high, and higher estimated would obtain for the
total of eligibles for the Law of Return.

Russia kept the largest Jewish population among the FSU republics—currently
the fifth largest in the world. As against a 1989 census-based
estimate of 570,000, including Tats, the February 1994 national
Microcensus of the Russian republic based on a 5 percent sample
revealed a Jewish population of about 400,000 plus approximately
8,000 Tats. This amounts to a total of 408,000 with a range
of variation between 401,000 and 415,000 allowing for sampling
errors. In 2002, on the eve of a new national census, our
estimate for Russia was 265,000. In spite of decline, Russia's
share of the total Jewish population of the FSU significantly
increased over time due to lower emigration frequencies. Waiting
for the results of the 2001 national census we estimated Jews
in the Ukraine at 100,000 in 2002 versus 487,300 in 1989 reflecting
continuing large-scale emigration—currently the ninth
largest community worldwide. In Belarus, the 1999 census indicated
a Jewish population of 27,798 (112,000 in 1989). For 2002
we estimated 24,300 Jews there. In Moldova, a survey conducted
in 2000 at the request of the JDC-FSU Division and the local
Jewish Community confirmed the patterns of a declining and
very elderly population. We estimated the core total at 5,500
for 2002 (65,800 in 1989). Based on updated figures from the
local national population registers, a combined total of 15,200
were estimated for the three Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania,
and Estonia (versus 39,900 in 1989). The figure for Latvia
includes a 1,800 upward correction based on the 2000 census.

The new population censuses conducted in parts of the FSU
produced figures only barely higher than our estimates based
on a yearly accountancy of known or expected vital events
and international migration. Some of these inconsistencies
can be explained by any combination of the following five
factors: (a) migration of several thousands of Jews between
the various FSU republics since 1991, especially to the Russian
republic; (b) a higher proportion of non-Jews than previously
assumed among the enlarged pool of Jewish emigrants from the
FSU, resulting in excessively lowered estimates of the number
of core Jews remaining there; (c) a Jewish identification
in the most recent sources by people who declared a different
national (ethnic) identification in previous censuses; (d)
counting in the republics' national censuses and population
registers some people as residents—according to the
legal criteria of the country of origin—who have actually
emigrated to Israel or other countries; (e) some returns to
Russia and other republics from Israel and other countries
by migrants who are still registered as residents of the latter.
While it is difficult to establish the respective weight of
each of these factors, their overall impact has so far been
quite secondary in the assessment of Jewish population changes.
Factors (d) and (e) above point to likely double counts of
FSU Jews in the respective countries of origin and of emigration.
Consequently our world synopsis of core Jewish populations
may be overestimated by several thousands.

The respective figures for the enlarged Jewish population—including
all current Jews as well as other persons of Jewish parentage
and their non-Jewish household members—are substantially
higher in the FSU where high intermarriage rates have prevailed
for several tens of years. While a definitive estimate for
the total USSR cannot be provided for lack of appropriate
data, evidence for Russia and other Slavic republics indicated
a high ratio of non-Jews to Jews in the enlarged Jewish population.
In 1989, 570,000 Jews in Russia together with 340,000 non-Jewish
household members, formed an enlarged Jewish population of
910,000; in 2001, the 275,000 core Jews and their 245,000
non-Jewish household members produced an enlarged population
of 520,000. The ratio of enlarged to core therefore increased
from 1.6 in 1989 to 1.9 in 2001. Due to the highly self-selective
character of aliyah, non-Jews constituted a relatively smaller
share of all new immigrants from the FSU than their share
among the Jewish population in the countries of origin, but
such share was rapidly increasing.

The wide provisions of Israel’s Law of Return apply
to virtually the maximum emigration pool of self-declared
Jews and close non-Jewish relatives. Any of the large figures
attributed in recent years to the size of Soviet Jewry, insofar
as they were based on demographic reasoning, did not relate
to the core but to various (unspecified) measures of an enlarged
Jewish population. The evidence also suggests that in the
FSU core Jews constitute a smaller share (and the non-Jewish
fringe a larger share) of the enlarged Jewish population than
in some western countries, such as the United States. Just
as the number of declared Jews evolved consistently between
censuses, the number of persons of Jewish descent who preferred
not to be identified as Jews was rather consistent too. However,
the recent political developments, and especially the current
emigration urge, probably led to greater readiness to acknowledge
a Jewish self-identification by persons who did not describe
themselves as such in past censuses. These “returnees”
imply an actual net increment to the core Jewish population
of the FSU, Israel, and World Jewry.

Other East Europe and Balkans.

A survey of Hungarian Jewry provided evidence on the size and
characteristics of the largest community in Eastern Europe
outside the FSU. As against an overall membership in local
Jewish organizations estimated at about 20-25,000, the new
data revealed a wide gap between core and enlarged Jewish
population figures. The broader definition including all persons
of Jewish ancestry encompassed 150-200,000 persons. On the
other hand a detailed reconstruction of Jewish international
migration and vital statistics based on the World Jewish Congress
end-1945 estimate of about 144,000 shoah survivors, and the
1948 Hungarian census figure of 134,000 produced a total of
50-55,000 for end-2000. The number of applicants for recompensation
(about 20,000 persons born before May 9, 1945 and defined
according to enlarged criteria) seems consistent with these
calculations. Our admittedly minimum estimate of a core Jewish
population of 51,300 for 2002 reflects the clear excess of
deaths over births that prevails in Hungary in general, and
among Jews particularly.

The January 1992 census of Romania reported a Jewish population
of 9,107. Based on the detailed Jewish community records available
with the Federatia Comunitatilor Evreiesi, our estimate for
the 2002 was 10,800. The Czech census of 1991 reported 1,292
Jews, but according to the Federation of Jewish Communities
there were at least twice as many, reflected in our estimate
of 2,800. The number of Jews in Poland and Slovakia was very
tentatively estimated at 3,500 and 3,300 respectively. In
Bulgaria, the December 4, 1992 census reported 3,461 Jews;
our 2002 estimate, reflecting emigration, was 2,300. Crisis
in the former Yugoslavia enhanced Jewish population decline.
The core Jewish population for the total of five successor
republics was assessed at about 3,500 at the beginning of
2002. Of these, less than 2,000 lived in Serbia and Montenegro,
and 1,300 in Croatia. The Jewish population of Turkey, where
a significant surplus of deaths over births has been reported
for several years, was re-estimated at about 17,000.

ASIA

Israel.

At the beginning of 2002, Israel’s Jewish population
was 5,025,000 —second largest in the world and 565,000
more than the number enumerated in the November 1995 census.
Crossing the line of 5 million Jews in Israel during 2001
was a significant landmark in Jewish population history. Adding
over 250,000 non-Jewish members of immigrant families, mostly
from the FSU but also from Ethiopia and other countries, an
enlarged Jewish population of 5,278,700 obtained, out of Israel's
total population of 6,508,400 (without the Palestinian population
of the territories).

Israel accounted for 99 percent of the over 5 million Jews
in Asia, including the Asian republics of the former USSR
but excluding the Asian territories of the Russian Republic
and Turkey (see table 5). At the beginning of 2002, Israel
Jews constituted 37.8 percent of total world Jewry. Israel’s
Jewish population grew in 2001 by 72,800, or 1.5 percent.
The pace of growth was slowing down after reaching growth
rates of 6.2 percent in 1990, 5 percent in 1991, and 2-2.5
percent between 1992 and 1996. The number of new immigrants
in 2001 (43,443) declined by 28 percent versus 2000 (60,130)
which in turn represented a 22 percent decline over 1999 (76,766).
About 25 percent of Jewish population growth in 2001 derived
from the net migration balance, against 32 percent in 2000;
most Jewish population growth derived from natural increase.
Moreover, 4,000 persons underwent Orthodox conversion in Israel
in 1999, and 3,500 did in 2001—most of them immigrants
from Ethiopia and the FSU and their children who were previously
listed as non-Jews. More than half of all new candidates to
conversion to Judaism attended the Institute for Judaism Studies
jointly established in Israel by the Orthodox, Conservative
and Reform movements.

(see Table 5)

At the beginning of 2001, Israel's enlarged Jewish population
(including non-Jewish household members) amounted at 5,180,600.
Of these, 4,794,600 lived on land included in Israel before
the 1967 war, 172,000 lived in Jerusalem neighborhoods incorporated
since 1967, and 15,800 lived on the Golan Heights.

Former USSR (Asian parts).

The total Jewish population in the Asian republics of the former
USSR was estimated at 25,000 at the beginning of 2002. Ethnic
conflicts in the Caucasus area, and the fear of Muslim fundamentalism
in Central Asia continued to cause concern and stimulated
Jewish emigration. At the beginning of the 1990s, minimal
rates of natural increase still existed among the more traditional
sections of these Jewish communities, but conditions were
rapidly eroding this residual surplus. Reflecting these trends,
the largest community remained in Azerbaijan (8,900 according
to the 1999 census and 7,900 in 2002 versus 30,800 in 1989),
followed by Uzbekistan (6,000 in 2002 vs. 94,900), Georgia
(5,000 vs. 24,800), Kazakhstan (6,800 according to the 1999
census and 4,500 in 2002, vs. 19,900 in 1989), and the remaining
republics (1,600 overall, thereof 900 in Kyrgyzstan, vs. 24,000
in 1989).

Other countries.

It is difficult to estimate the Jewish population of Iran,
last counted in the 1986 national census. Based on evidence
of continuing decline, the 2002 estimate was reduced to 11,200.
In other Asian countries with veteran communities the Jewish
population tended to disappear. The recent reduction was more
notable in Syria and Yemen after Jews were officially allowed
to emigrate.

In India, the 1991 census provided a figure of 5,271 Jews,
63 percent of whom in the state of Maharahastra including
the main community of Mumbay. Another 1,067 persons belonging
to such religious groups as Messianic Judaism and Enoka Israel,
all from Mizoram, were also counted. A survey conducted in
1995-96 by ORT India covered 3,330 individuals, fairly well
educated and experiencing the customary patterns of postponed
marriage, declining fertility, and aging. Our 2002 estimate
was 5,300.

Very small Jewish communities, partially of a transient character,
exist in several countries of Southeast Asia. After the reunion
in 1997 of Hong Kong with the mainland, China’s permanent
Jewish population was roughly estimated at 1,000, the same
as Japan.

AFRICA

About 87,000 Jews were estimated to remain in Africa at the
beginning of 2002, of which about 90 percent in the Republic
of South Africa (see table 6). The 1980 national census counted
about 118,000 Jews among South Africa’s white population.
Substantial Jewish emigration since then was partially compensated
by Jewish immigration and return migration of former emigrants,
but an incipient negative balance of internal changes produced
some further attrition. The 1991 population census did not
provide a reliable new national figure on Jewish population
size as only 65,406 white people answered to be Jewish to
a facultative question. The results of a Jewish-sponsored
survey of the Jewish population in the five major South African
urban centers, completed—like the census—in 1991,
confirmed ongoing demographic decline. Based on that evidence,
the most likely range of Jewish population size was estimated
at 92,000 to 106,000 for 1991 with a central value of 100,000.
According to the 1996 census there were 55,734 white Jews,
10,449 black Jews, 1,058 "coloured" (mixed race)
Jews, and 359 Indian Jews. Continuing Jewish emigration from
South Africa to Israel and other Western countries (especially
Australia) stimulated by personal insecurity and other fears
about the future was reflected in a new survey carried out
in 1998. A new estimate was suggested of 80,000 for 2000,
lowered to 78,000 in 2002, making South Africa the 12th largest
Jewish population worldwide.

In recent years, the Jewish community of Ethiopia was at the
center of an international effort of rescue. In 1991, the
overwhelming majority of Ethiopian Jews—about 20,000
people—were brought to Israel, most of them in a one-day
dramatic air-lift operation. Some of these migrants were non-Jewish
members of mixed households. It was assumed that only few
Jews had remained in Ethiopia, but in subsequent years the
small remaining core Jewish population appeared to be larger
than previously estimated. Between 1992 and 2001, nearly 20,000
immigrants from Ethiopia arrived in Israel—mostly non-Jewish
relatives seeking reunification with their Jewish families.
Although possibly more Jews may appear asking to emigrate
to Israel, and more Christian relatives of Jews already in
Israel may press for emigration before Israel terminates its
current family reunification program, a conservative figure
of 100 Jews was tentatively suggested for 2002. Small Jewish
populations remained in various African countries south of
Sahara.

The remnant of Moroccan and Tunisian Jewry tended to shrink
slowly through emigration, mostly to Israel, France and Canada.
The 2002 estimate was 5,600 for Morocco and 1,500 for Tunisia.
As some Jews had a foothold both in Morocco or Tunisia and
also in France or other Western countries, their geographical
attribution was uncertain.

(See Table 6)

OCEANIA

The major country of Jewish residence in Oceania (Australasia)
is Australia, where 95 percent of the estimated total of 104,000
Jews live (see table 7). A total of 79,805 people in Australia
described their religion as Jewish in the 1996 national census.
This represented an increase of 5,419 (7.3 percent) over the
1991 census figure of 74,186 declared Jews. In Australia the
question on religion is optional. In 1996, over 25 percent
(and in 1991, over 23 percent) of the country’s whole
population either did not specify their religion or stated
explicitly that they had none. This large group must be assumed
to contain persons who identify in other ways as Jews, although
it is not sure whether Jews in Australia state their religion
more or less often that others. In a 1991 survey in Melbourne,
where roughly one half of all Australia’s Jews live,
only less than 7 percent of the Jewish respondents stated
they had not identified as Jews in the census. The Melbourne
survey actually depicted a very stable community combining
growing acculturation with moderate levels of intermarriage.
Australian Jewry received migratory reinforcements during
the last decade, especially from South Africa, the FSU, and
Israel. At the same time, there were demographic patterns
with negative effects on Jewish population size, such as declining
birth cohorts and strong aging. Taking into account these
various factors, our 2002 estimate was 99,000—tenth
largest community worldwide—substantially more than
official census returns, but less than would obtain by adding
the full proportion of those who did not report any religion
in the census. The 2001 census will provide an improved population
baseline.

In New Zealand, according to the 1996 Census, 4,821 people
indicated a Jewish religious affiliation; a total of 1,545
indicated an Israeli/Jewish/Hebrew ethnicity, of which 633
were also Jewish by religion, 609 had another religion, and
303 reported no religion. Adding the latter to those who reported
a Jewish religion, a core Jewish population estimate of 5,124
obtained.

(See Table 7)

Dispersion and Concentration

COUNTRY PATTERNS

While Jews are widely dispersed throughout the world, they
are also concentrated to a large extent (see table 8). In
2002, over 97 percent of world Jewry lived in the 15 countries
with the largest Jewish populations; and over 80 percent lived
in the two largest communities—the United States and
Israel. Similarly, ten leading Diaspora countries together
comprised over 92 percent of the Diaspora Jewish population;
three countries (United States, France, and Canada) accounted
for nearly 80 percent, and the United States alone for nearly
69 percent of total Diaspora Jewry.

(see Table 8)

Table 9 demonstrates the magnitude of Jewish dispersion. The
94 individual countries listed above as each having at least
100 Jews are scattered over six continents. In 2002, 9 countries
had a Jewish population of 100,000 or more; another 4 countries
had 50,000 or more; 14 countries had 10,000-50,000; 11 countries
had 5,000-10,000; and 56 countries had fewer than 5,000 Jews
each. In relative terms, too, the Jews were thinly scattered
nearly everywhere in the Diaspora. There is not a single Diaspora
country where Jews amounted to 25 per 1,000 (2.5 percent)
of the total population. In most countries they constituted
a far smaller fraction. Only three Diaspora countries had
more than 10 per 1,000 (1 percent) Jews in their total population;
and another 5 countries had more than 5 Jews per 1,000 (0.5
percent) of population. The respective 8 countries were, in
descending order of the proportion, but regardless of the
absolute number of their Jews: Gibraltar (24.0 per 1,000),
United States (20.1), Canada (11.8), France (8.8), Uruguay
(6.7), Argentina (5.3), Australia (5.2), and Hungary (5.1).
Other major Diaspora communities having lower proportions
of Jews per 1,000 of total population were the United Kingdom
(4.6 per 1,000), Russia (1.8), Germany (1.3), Ukraine (2.0),
Brazil (0.6), South Africa (1.8), Mexico (0.4), and Belgium
(3.1).

In the State of Israel, by contrast, the Jewish majority amounted
to 772 per 1,000 (77.2 percent) in 2002—including the
207,700 Jews but not the Arab population of the Palestinian
National Authority and other administered areas. Excluding
both Jews and non-Jews in the West Bank and Gaza, the proportion
of Jews in Israel (with East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights)
was 76.5 percent. Jews represented 8.5 percent of the total
population in the West Bank and 0.6 percent in the Gaza Strip.

(see Table 9)

CONCENTRATION IN MAJOR CITIES

Intensive international and internal migrations led to the
concentration of an overwhelming majority of the Jews into
large urban areas. Table 10 ranks the cities where the largest
Jewish populations were found in 2002. These 20 central places
and their suburban and satellite areas altogether comprised
over 73 percent of the whole world Jewish population. Ten
of these cities were in the U.S., four in Israel, two in Canada,
and one each in France, the United Kingdom, Argentina, and
Russia. The ten metropolitan areas in the United States included
78 percent of the total U.S. Jewry, and the four Israeli major
urban areas included 80 percent of Israel’s Jewish population.

Even more striking evidence of the extraordinary urbanization
of the Jews is the fact that over one-third of all world Jewry
live in the metropolitan areas of Tel Aviv and New York, and
52 percent live in only six large metropolitan areas: in and
around New York (including areas in New Jersey and Connecticut),
Los Angeles (including neighboring counties), and Southeastern
Florida in the U.S., and in the Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem
conurbations in Israel.

(see Table 10)

 

Notes

1. The previous estimates, as of 1.1.2001, were
   published in AJYB 2001, vol. 101, pp. 532-569. See also Sergio
   DellaPergola, Uzi Rebhun, Mark Tolts, "Prospecting the
   Jewish Future: Population Projections 2000-2080", ibid,
   pp. 103-146; and previous AJYB volumes for further details
   on earlier estimates.
   


2. Many of these activities are carried out
   by, or in coordination with, the Division of Jewish Demography
   and Statistics at the A. Harman Institute of Contemporary
   Jewry (ICJ), the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The collaboration
   of the many institutions and individuals in the different
   countries who have supplied information for this update is
   acknowledged with thanks.


3. For overviews of the subject matter and technical
   issues see Paul Ritterband, Barry A. Kosmin, Jeffrey Scheckner,
   “Counting Jewish Populations: Methods and Problems”,
   AJYB 1988, vol. 88, pp. 204-21; Sergio DellaPergola, “Modern
   Jewish Demography” in Jack Wertheimer (ed.) The Modern
   Jewish Experience (New York, 1993) pp. 275-90.


4. See Roberto Bachi, Population Trends of World
   Jewry (Jerusalem, 1976); U.O. Schmelz, “Jewish Survival:
   The Demographic Factors”, AJYB 1981, vol. 81, pp. 61-117;
   U.O. Schmelz, Aging of World Jewry (Jerusalem, 1984); Sergio
   DellaPergola, “Changing Cores and Peripheries: Fifty
   Years in Socio-demographic Perspective”, in Terms of
   Survival: The Jewish World since 1945, ed. R.S. Wistrich (London,
   1995) pp. 13-43; Sergio DellaPergola, World Jewry beyond 2000:
   Demographic Prospects (Oxford, 1999).


5. Following the International Conference on
   Jewish population problems held in Jerusalem in 1987, initiated
   by the late Dr. Roberto Bachi of the Hebrew University and
   sponsored by major Jewish organizations worldwide, an International
   Scientific Advisory Committee (ISAC) was established. Currently
   chaired Dr. Sidney Goldstein of Brown University, ISAC aims
   to coordinate and monitor Jewish population data collection
   internationally. See: Sergio DellaPergola, Leah Cohen (eds.)
   World Jewish Population: Trends and Policies (Jerusalem, 1992).


6. The term enlarged Jewish population was initially
   suggested by S. DellaPergola, “The Italian Jewish Population
   Study: Demographic Characteristics and Trends” in U.O.Schmelz,
   P.Glikson, S.J.Gould (eds.) Studies in Jewish Demography;
   Survey for 1969-1971 (Jerusalem-London, 1975), pp. 60-97.


7. For a concise review of the rules of attribution
   of Jewish personal status in Rabbinic and Israeli laws, including
   reference to Jewish sects, isolated communities, and apostates,
   see: Michael Corinaldi, “Jewish Identity”, Ch.
   2 in his Jewish Identity: The Case of Ethiopian Jewry (Jerusalem,
   1998).


8. The term core Jewish population was initially
   suggested by Barry A. Kosmin, Sidney Goldstein, Joseph Waksberg,
   Nava Lerer, Ariela Keysar, Jeffrey Scheckner, Highlights of
   the CJF 1990 National Jewish Population Survey (New York,
   1991).


9. Data and estimates derived from the United
   Nations Population Division, Population, Resources, Environment
   and Development Databank (New York, 2002).


10. See DellaPergola, Rebhun, Tolts, "Prospecting
    the Jewish Future", cit..


11. Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Population
    and Vital Statistics 1997, (Jerusalem, 1998), p. 2-8.


12. The 1989-1990 National Jewish Population
    Survey was conducted under the auspices of the Council of
    Jewish Federations with the supervision of a National Technical
    Advisory Committee chaired by Dr. Sidney Goldstein of Brown
    University. Dr. Barry Kosmin of the North American Jewish
    Data Bank and City University of New York Graduate School
    directed the study. See: Kosmin et al., cit.; Sidney Goldstein,
    “Profile of American Jewry: Insights from the 1990 National
    Jewish Population Survey”, AJYB 1992, Vol. 92, pp. 77-173.


13. See Kosmin et al., p. 39.


14. See HIAS, Annual Report (New York).


15. Statistical Abstract of Israel, vol. 49,
    1998, pp. 4-3, 4-5, 5-7; Yinon Cohen, Iitchak Haberfeld, “The
    Number of Israeli Immigrants in the United States in 1990”,
    Demography, 34, 2, 1997, pp. 199-212.


16. See Goldstein, AJYB 1992; see also: U.O.
    Schmelz, Sergio DellaPergola, Basic Trends in U.S. Jewish
    Demography (New York, American Jewish Committee, 1988); Sergio
    DellaPergola, “New Data on Demography and Identification
    among Jews in the U.S.: Trends, Inconsistencies and Disagreements”,
    Contemporary Jewry, Vol. 12, 1991, pp. 67-97.


17. Egon Mayer, Barry Kosmin, Ariela Keysar,
    American Jewish Identity Survey 2001 (New York, 2001).


18. The first in a new series of yearly compilations
    of local U.S. Jewish population estimates appeared in Barry
    A. Kosmin, Paul Ritterband, Jeffrey Scheckner, “Jewish
    Population in the United States, 1987,” AJYB 1987, vol.
    87, pp. 164-91. For 2000 see Jim Schwartz, Jeffrey Scheckner,
    “Jewish Population in the United States, 2000”,
    AJYB 2001, vol. 101, pp. 253-280. The 2001 update appears
    elsewhere in the present volume.


19. See Uzi Rebhun, “Changing Patterns
    of Internal Migration 1970-1990: A Comparative Analysis of
    Jews and Whites in the United States”, Demography, 34,
    2, 1997, pp. 213-223.


20. The NAJDB estimate for the total U.S. Jewry
    in 2000 exceeds ours by 436,000 (a difference of 7.6 percent).
    Since 1990 we have estimated a Jewish population increase
    of 185,000 as against 621,000 according to NAJDB, and a decline
    of 175,000 according to AJIS.


21. The sum inconsistency appears in the original
    report: Statistics Canada, Top 25 Ethnic Origins in Canada,
    Showing Single and Multiple Responses, for Canada, 1996 Census
    (20% Sample Data) (Ottawa, 1998).


22. Statistics Canada, Religions in Canada—1991
    Census (Ottawa, 1993); Jim L. Torczyner, Shari L. Brotman,
    Kathy Viragh, Gustave J. Goldmann, Demographic Challenges
    Facing Canadian Jewry; Initial Findings from the 1991 Census
    (Montreal, 1993); Jim L. Torczyner, Shari L. Brotman, “The
    Jews of Canada: A Profile from the Census,” AJYB 1995,
    vol. 95, pp. 227-260. See also Leo Davids, “The Jewish
    Population of Canada, 1991” in Sergio DellaPergola,
    Judith Even (eds.), Papers in Jewish Demography 1993 in Memory
    of U.O. Schmelz (Jerusalem, 1997) pp. 311-323.


23. Sergio DellaPergola, Susana Lerner, La población
    judía de México: Perfil demográfico,
    social y cultural (México-Jerusalén, 1995).
    The project, conducted in cooperation between the Centro de
    Estudios Urbanos y de Desarrollo Urbano (CEDDU), El Colegio
    de Mexico, and the Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics
    of the A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The Hebrew
    University, was sponsored by the Asociación Mexicana
    de Amigos de la Universidad Hebrea de Jerusalén.


24. Carlos Tapiero, The Jewish Community of Guatemala:
    Sociodemographic Profile and Cultural and Religious Identity
    (Jerusalem, 2001, unpublished M.A. Thesis, Hebrew and Spanish).
    


25. For a more detailed discussion of the region’s
    Jewish population trends, see U.O. Schmelz, Sergio DellaPergola,
    “The Demography of Latin American Jewry”, AJYB
    1985, vol. 85, pp. 51-102; Sergio DellaPergola, “Demographic
    Trends of Latin American Jewry”, in J. Laikin Elkin,
    G.W. Merks (eds.) The Jewish Presence in Latin America (Boston,
    1987), pp. 85-133.


26. Rosa N. Geldstein, Censo de la Poblacion
    Judia de la ciudad de Salta, 1986; Informe final (Buenos Aires,
    1988); Yacov Rubel, Los Judios de Villa Crespo y Almagro:
    Perfil Socio-demográfico (Buenos Aires, 1989); Yacov
    Rubel, Mario Toer, Censo de la Población Judía
    de Rosario, 1990 (Buenos Aires, 1992); Centro Union Israelita
    de Cordoba, First Sociodemographic Study of Jewish Population;
    Cordoba 1993 (Cordoba, 1995).


27. See a brief overview of the problems in Laura
    Golbert, Norma Lew, Alejandro Rofman, La nueva pobreza judía
    (Buenos Aires, 1997).


28. IBGE, Censo demográfico do Brazil
    (Rio de Janeiro, 1997).


29. Henrique Rattner, Recenseamento e pesquisa
    sociológica da comunidad judaica de São Paulo,
    1968, in Henrique Rattner (ed.) Nos caminhos da diáspora
    (São Paulo, 1972); Claudia Milnitzky, ed., Apendice
    estatistico da comunidade judaica do estado de São
    Paulo (São Paulo, 1980); Egon and Frieda Wolff, Documentos
    V; Os recenseamentos demograficos oficiais do seculo XX (Rio
    de Janeiro, 1993-1994).


30. Anita Brumer, Identidade em mudança;
    Pesquisa sociológica sobre os judeus do Rio Grande
    do Sul (Porto Alegre, 1994).


31. Rene D. Decol Imigrações urbanas
    para o Brasil: o caso dos Judeus. (Campinas, University of
    Campinas, 1999, unpublished Ph.D. dissertation); Daniel Sasson,
    A comunidade judaica do Rio de Janeiro; Metodologia da pesquisa
    (Rio de Janeiro, 1997).


32. Gabriel Berger et al., Estudio Socio-Demográfico
    de la Comunidad Judía de Chile (Santiago- Buenos Aires,
    1995).


33. Sergio DellaPergola, Salomon Benzaquen, Tony
    Beker de Weinraub, Perfil sociodemográfico y cutural
    de la comunidad judía de Caracas (Caracas, 2000). The
    survey was sponsored by the two main local Jewish community
    organizations, the Asociación Israelita de Venezuela
    and the Union Israelita de Caracas, and by the Asociación
    de Amigos de la Universidad Hebrea de Jerusalén.


34. Local observers had expected quicker reduction
    of Jewish population size. See: Leon Trahtemberg Siederer,
    Demografia judía del Peru (Lima, 1988).


35. See Sergio DellaPergola, “Jews in the
    European Community: Sociodemographic Trends and Challenges”,
    AJYB 1993, Vol. 93, pp. 25-82.


36. Doris Bensimon, Sergio DellaPergola, La population
    juive de France: socio-démographie et identité
    (Jerusalem-Paris, 1984).


37. Erik H. Cohen, L’Etude et l’éducation
    juive en France ou l’avenir d’une communauté
    (Paris, 1991).


38. Marlena Schmool, Frances Cohen, A Profile
    of British Jewry: Patterns and Trends at the Turn of the Century
    (London, 1998)


39. Steven Haberman, Barry A. Kosmin, Caren Levy,
    “Mortality Patterns of British Jews 1975-79: Insights
    and Applications for the Size and Structure of British Jewry”,
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A, 146, pt. 3, 1983,
    pp. 294-310; Steven Haberman, Marlena Schmool, “Estimates
    of British Jewish Population 1984-88”, Journal of the
    Royal Statistical Society, A, 158, pt. 3, 1995, pp. 547-562;
    Stanley Waterman, Barry Kosmin, British Jewry in the Eighties:
    A Statistical and Geographical Guide (London, 1986); Marlena
    Schmool, Report on Community Statistics (London, yearly publication).


40. Marlena Schmool, Frances Cohen, British Synagogue
    Membership in 1990 (London, 1991); Stephen Miller, Marlena
    Schmool, Antony Lerman, Social and Political Attitudes of
    British Jews: Some Key Findings of the JPR Survey (London,
    1996).


41. Statistisches Bundesamt, Bevölkerung
    und Erwerbstätigkeit, Volkszählung vom 25 Mai 1987,
    Heft 6 (Stuttgart, 1990).


42. See Madeleine Tress, “Welfare state
    type, labour markets and refugees: a comparison of Jews from
    the former Soviet Union in the United States and the Federal
    Republic of Germany”, Ethnic and Racial Studies, 21,1,
    1998, 116-137.


43. Zentralwohlfartsstelle der Juden in Deutschland,
    Mitgliederstatistik; Der Einzelnen Jüdischen Gemeinden
    und Landesverbände in Deutschland (Frankfurt, yearly).


44. For an overview see Sergio DellaPergola,
    “La popolazione ebraica in Italia nel contesto ebraico
    globale” in Corrado Vivanti (ed.) Storia d’Italia,
    Ebrei in Italia (Torino, 1997), Vol.2, pp. 895-936.


45. C. Kooyman, J. Almagor, Israelis in Holland:
    A Socio-demographic Study of Israelis and Former Israelis
    in Holland (Amsterdam, 1996); Philip van Praag, “Between
    Speculation and Reality”, Studia Rosenthaliana, special
    issue published together with vol. 23, 2, 1989, pp. 175-179.
    


46. Personal communication by Dr. Chris Kooyman,
    Stichting Joods Maatschappelijk Werk, Amsterdam.


47. Bundesamt für Statistik, Wohnbevölkerung
    nach Konfession und Geschlecht, 1980 und 1990 (Bern, 1993).


48. For the historical demographic background
    see U.O. Schmelz, “New Evidence on Basic Issues in the
    Demography of Soviet Jews”, The Jewish Journal of Sociology,
    16, no. 2, 1974, pp. 209-23; Mordechai Altshuler, Soviet Jewry
    since the Second World War: Population and Social Structure
    (Westport, 1987); Mordechai Altshuler, Soviet Jewry on the
    Eve of the Holocaust: A Social and Demographic Profile (Jerusalem,
    1998).


49. Dr. Mark Tolts of the A. Harman Institute
    of Contemporary Jewry at the Hebrew University, actively contributed
    to the preparation of FSU Jewish population estimates. See:
    Mark Tolts, "Main Demographic Trends of the Jews in Russia
    and the FSU" (Jerusalem, 2001).


50. Goskomstat SSSR, Vestnik Statistiki, 10 (1990),
    pp. 69-71. This figure does not include about 30,000 Tats
    who were in fact Mountain Jews—a group mostly concentrated
    in the Caucasus area that enjoys fully Jewish status and the
    prerogatives granted by Israel’s Law of Return.


51. Yearly migration estimates can be compiled
    according to (ex-)Soviet, Israeli, American, German and other
    sources, especially Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and
    HIAS yearly reports. See also: Mark Tolts, “Demography
    of the Jews in the Former Soviet Union: Yesterday and Today”,
    Paper presented at the Conference Jewish Life after the USSR:
    A Community in Transition, Harvard University (Cambridge,
    Mass., 1999); Yoel Florsheim, “Emigration of Jews from
    the Soviet Union in 1989”, Jews and Jewish Topics in
    the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 2 (12), 1990, pp. 22-31;
    Sidney Heitman, “Soviet Emigration in 1990”, Berichte
    des Bundesinstitut fur Ostwissenschaftliche und internationale
    studien, vol. 33, 1991; Zentralwohlfahrtsstelle..., cit.;
    M. Tress, cit..


52. Mark Tolts, “The Jewish Population
    of Russia, 1989-1995”, Jews in Eastern Europe, 3 (31),
    1996; Mark Tolts, “Demography of the Jews in the Former
    Soviet Union: Yesterday and Today”, cit..


53. Mark Tolts, “Some Basic Trends in Soviet
    Jewish Demography” in U.O. Schmelz, S. DellaPergola
    (eds.) Papers in Jewish Demography 1989 (Jeruslem, 1993) pp.
    237-243; Viacheslav Konstantinov, “Jewish Population
    of the USSR on the Eve of the Great Exodus”, Jews and
    Jewish Topics in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe 3 (16),
    1991, pp. 5-23; Mordechai Altshuler, “Socio-demographic
    Profile of Moscow Jews”, ibid., pp. 24-40; Mark Tolts,
    “The Balance of Births and Deaths Among Soviet Jewry”,
    Jews and Jewish Topics in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe
    2 (18), 1992, pp. 13-26; Leonid E. Darsky, “Fertility
    in the USSR; Basic Trends” (paper presented at European
    Population Conference, Paris, 1991); Mark Tolts, “Jewish
    Marriages in the USSR: A Demographic Analysis”, East
    European Jewish Affairs 22 (2) (London, 1992); Sidney and
    Alice Goldstein, Lithuanian Jewry 1993: A Demographic and
    Sociocultural Profile (Jerusalem, 1997).


54. Age structures of the Jewish population in
    the Russian Federal Republic were reported in: Goskomstat
    SSSR, Itogi vsesoiuznoi perepisi naseleniia 1970 goda, Vol.
    4, Tab. 33 (Moscow, 1973); Goskomstat SSSR, Itogi vsesoiuznoi
    perepisi naseleniia 1979 goda, Vol. 4, Part 2, Tab. 2 (Moscow,
    1989); Goskomstat SSSR, Itogi vsesoiuznoi perepisi naseleniia
    1989 goda (Moscow, 1991). Age structures of recent Jewish
    migrants from the USSR to the United States and to Israel
    appear, respectively, in: HIAS, Statistical Report (New York,
    yearly publication) and unpublished annual data kindly communicated
    to the author; Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Immigration
    to Israel, Special Series, (Jerusalem, yearly publication);
    Yoel Florsheim, “Immigration to Israel and the United
    States from the former Soviet Union, 1992”, Jews in
    Eastern Europe, 3 (22), 1993, pp. 31-39; Mark Tolts, “Trends
    in Soviet Jewish Demography since the Second World War”
    in Jews and Jewish Life in Russia and the Soviet Union, ed.
    Ya’acov Ro’i (London, 1995) pp. 365-82; Mark Tolts,
    “Demography of the Jews in the Former Soviet Union:
    Yestarday and Today”, cit..


55. Mark Tolts, “Demographic Trends of
    the Jews in the Three Slavic Republics of the Former USSR:
    A Comparative Abalysis” in S. DellaPergola, J. Even
    (eds.), Papers in Jewish Demography 1993 (Jerusalem, 1997),
    pp. 147-175; Mark Tolts, “The Interrelationship between
    Emigration and the Sociodemographic Trends of Russian Jewry”
    in N. Levin Epstein, Y. Ro’i, P. Ritterband (eds.) Russian
    Jews on Three Continents (London, 1997), pp. 147-176.


56. See V. Aleksandrova, “Mikroperepisis’
    naseleniia Rossiiskoi Federatsii,” Voprosy Statistiki,
    1994 (1), p. 37 (Moscow, 1994). See also Mark Tolts, “The
    Interrelationship Between Emigration and the Socio-Demographic
    Profile of Russian Jewry”, in Russian Jews on Three
    Continents, ed. Noah Levin-Epstein, Paul Ritterband, Yaakov
    Ro’i (London, 1996) pp. 147-176.


57. Ministry of Statistics and Analysis of the
    Republic of Belarus, Population of the Republic of Belarus:
    Results of the 1999 Population Census Conducted in the Republic
    of Belarus (Minsk, 2000).


58. Malka Korazim, Ester Katz, Vladimir Bruter,
    Survey of the Jewish Population in Moldova. (Jerusalem, 2002).


59. Goldstein, Lithuanian Jewry 1993, cit.; Lithuanian
    Department of Statistics, Demographic Yearbook 1996 (Vilnius,
    1997); Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Demographic Yearbook
    of Latvia 1997 (Riga, 1997); Anna Stroi, “Latvia v chelovecheskom
    izmerenii: etnicheskii aspekt”, Diena (Riga, 1997).


60. Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments
    in Europe, 2000 (Strasbourg, 2000).


61. Mark Tolts, “Jews in the Russian Republic
    since the Second World War: the Dynamics of Demographic Erosion”,
    in International Union for the Scientific Study of Population,
    International Population Conference (Montreal, 1993) Vol.
    3, pp. 99-111; Evgeni Andreev, “Jews in Russia's Households
    (Based on the 1994 Microcensus)”, in S. DellaPergola,
    J.Even (eds.) Papers in Jewish Demography 1997 (Jerusalem,
    2001), pp. 141-159; Tolts, "Main Demographic Trends and
    Characteristics…", cit.


62. Israel’s Ministry of Interior records
    the religion-nationality of each person, including new immigrants.
    Such attribution is made on the basis of documentary evidence
    supplied by the immigrants themselves and checked by competent
    authorities in Israel. According to data available from the
    Interior Ministry’s Central Population Register, 90.3
    percent of all new immigrants from the USSR during the period
    October 1989-August 1992 were recorded as Jewish. In 1994,
    the percent had declined to 71.6, in 1998 it was less than
    60 percent, and in 2000 less than 50 percent. See: Israel
    Central Bureau of Statistics, Immigration to Israel 1998 (Jerusalem,
    2000) and unpublished data. See also: Sergio DellaPergola,
    “The Demographic Context of the Soviet Aliya”,
    Jews and Jewish Topics in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe,
    3 (16), 1991, pp. 41-56.


63. The survey was directed by Prof. Andras Kovacs
    of the Central European University in Budapest. Publication
    is forthcoming.


64. Tamás Stark, "Hungarian Jewry
    during the Holocaust and after Liberation", in S. DellaPergola,
    J.Even (eds.) Papers in Jewish Demography 1993 in memory of
    U.O. Schmelz (Jerusalem, 1997), pp. 139-145.


65. Statistical Yearbook (Sofia, 1992).


66. For an overview see Melita Svob, Jews in
    Croatia: Migration and Changes in Jewish Population (Zagreb,
    1997).


67. Shaul Tuval, The Jewish Community of Istanbul,
    1948-1992: A Study in Cultural, Economic and Social Processes
    (Jerusalem, 1999, unpublished Ph. D. dissertation), and personal
    communication.


68. Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, Population
    and Vital Statistics (Jerusalem, 2002); Monthly Bulletin of
    Statistics (Jerusalem, 2002).


69. The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics refers
    to such enlarged population as "Jews and others".


70. We thank the staff of Israel’s Central
    Bureau of Statistics for facilitating compilation of published
    and unpublished data. For a comprehensive review of sociodemographic
    changes in Israel, see U.O. Schmelz, Sergio DellaPergola,
    Uri Avner, “Ethnic Differences among Israeli Jews: A
    New Look”, AJYB 1990, vol. 90, pp. 3-204. See also:
    Sergio DellaPergola, “Demographic Changes in Israel
    in the Early 1990s”, in: Y. Kop (ed.) Israel’s
    Social Services 1992-93 (Jerusalem, 1993), pp. 57-115.


71. Data released by Rabbinical Courts and special
    Conversion Courts. See Ha’aretz, 24 December 2000.


72. Sergio DellaPergola, "Demography in
    Israel/Palestine: Trends, Prospects, Policy Implications",
    Paper presented at IUSSP XXIV General Population Conference
    (Salvador de Bahia, 2001).


73. Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, Immigration
    to Israel 1998 (Jerusalem, 2000); Ministry of Immigrants Absorption,
    Division of Data Systems, Selected Data on Aliyah, 2000 (Jerusalem,
    2001); Jewish Agency for Israel, Division of Aliyah and Absorption,
    Data on Aliyah by Continents and Selected Countries (Jerusalem,
    2001).


74. Tolts, “The Balance...”, cit.


75. Not including the Jewish portion of the Tat
    group.


76. Statistical Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan,
    Natsionaln'nyi sostav naseleniia Respubliki Kazakhstan: Itogi
    perepisi naseleniia 1999 goda v Respublike Kazakhstan, Vol.
    1 (Almaty, 2000).


77. Data kindly provided by Dr. Mehdi Bozorgmehr,
    Von Grunebaum Center for Near Eastern Studies, University
    of California-UCLA, Los Angeles.


78. Asha A. Bhende, Prakash Fulpagare, Demographic
    and Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Jews in India (Mumbai,
    1997).


79. Sergio DellaPergola, Allie A. Dubb, “South
    African Jewry: A Sociodemographic Profile”, AJYB 1988,
    vol. 88, pp. 59-140.


80. The study was directed by Dr. Allie A. Dubb
    and supported by the Kaplan Centre for Jewish Studies, University
    of Cape Town. See Allie A. Dubb, The Jewish Population of
    South Africa; The 1991 Sociodemographic Survey (Cape Town,
    1994).


81. Barry A. Kosmin, Jaqueline Goldberg, Milton
    Shain, Shirley Bruk, Jews of the New South Africa': highlights
    of the 1998 national survey of South African Jews (London,
    1999).


82. See George E. Gruen, “Jews in the Middle
    East and North Africa”, AJYB 1994, Vol. 94, pp. 438-464;
    and data communicated by Jewish organizations.


83. William D. Rubinstein, “Jews in the
    1996 Australian Census”, Australian Jewish Historical
    Society Journal, 14, 3, 1998, pp. 495-507.


84. Bill Rubinstein, “Census total for
    Jews Up by 7.7 Percent; Big Gains in Smaller States”,
    unpublished report (Geelong, Victoria, 1993).


85. John Goldlust, The Jews of Melbourne; A Report
    of the Findings of the Jewish Community Survey, 1991 (Melbourne,
    1993).


86. Sol Encel, Nathan Moss, Sydney Jewish Community;
    Demographic Profile (Sydney, 1995).


87. Statistics New Zealand, 1996 Census of Population
    and Dwellings, Ethnic Groups (Wellington, 1997).


88. Definitions of metropolitan statistical areas
    vary across countries. Estimates reported here reflect the
    criteria and updates adopted in each place. For U.S. estimates,
    see Schwartz and Scheckner, cit., AJYB 1998; for Canadian
    estimates see Torczyner and Brotman, cit.; for other diaspora
    estimates, A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry; for
    Israeli estimates see Israel Central Bureau of Statistics,
    Population and Vital Statistics 1999, cit.; Monthly Bulletin,
    cit. Following the 1995 population census in Israel, major
    metropolitan urban areas were redefined. Netanya and Ashdod,
    each with a Jewish population exceeding 100,000, were included
    in the outer ring of the Greater Tel Aviv area. A Metropolitan
    Area for Beer Sheva was newly established in 2001, covering
    a Jewish population nearly double of that of the central city.